Abstract: Since policy implications are outstanding in quantitatively analyzing the regional reasonable population size , it is even more necessary to evaluate strictly the accuracy of the research outcome .This paper takes East Huang Pu Area as an example , introducing briefly the possible reasonable population size in this area in the future by the EOP-MM Model and P-S Model .Based on that , the paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both models and puts forward the standard of selecting models for the quantitative analysis of regional reasonable population size .

Keywords: regional analysis, population size, research method

摘要： 区域合理人口规模的定量研究具有显著的政策涵义 ,因此应该更严谨地评估其研究结论的准确性。本文以上海浦东新区为例 ,简要介绍了EOP -MM和P -S两种模型估算的该地区未来可能的适度人口规模 ,并在此基础上 ,讨论了以上两个模型的优势和不足 ,最后提出了选择区域合理人口规模定量研究模型的标准。

关键词: 区域研究, 人口容量, 研究方法