Table of Content

29 May 2002, Volume 26 Issue 3

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Reorientation of China’s Family Planning Program

Gu Baochang

2002, 26(3):  1-8 . 

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Since 1990s, particularly after the ICPD in 1994 , China' s family planning program has been under a dramatic reorientation process. With years' experience , now is time to do some systematic discussion on several key aspects of the program reorientation .The discussion is carried out in the paper consecutively as follows:demographic situation and social change , quality of care , comprehensive reform, development of family planning association.

Estimation of Size and Structure of Chinese Population by the Fifth National Census

Yu Xuejun

2002, 26(3):  9-15 . 

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This paper observed contradiction between size and structure of Chinese population based on the information of the fifth national census data issued by the China State Statistical Bureau .Evidences show that the size population aged 0 ～ 14 is underreported, and the estimated Total Fertility Rate is too low to be reliable .The author also analyzes some possible reasons of this phenomenon , and gives some suggestions for adjusting the fertility level .

Analysis of Induced Abortion of Chinese Women

Qiao Xiaochun

2002, 26(3):  16-25. 

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Estimates of the ratio and rate of induced abortion are made based on the data from annual statistics in the Ministry of Health and the National Population and Reproductive Health Survey conducted by the State Family Planning Commission in 1997, and the causes of the induced abortion are analyzed by using the 1997 survey data as well .It is found that the rate of induced abortion in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas ;the rate undertaken by conceived women who had only girls was lower than that by women who had at least one boy ;induced abortion caused by unwilling pregnancy due to the contraceptive failure was the dominant reason .However, inconsistency with the requirement of family planning was the main cause of the induced abortion in rural areas.

Discussion on Quantitative Analysis Method of Regional Reasonable Population Size

Chen Jiahua, Wen Yuxiang and Li Dapeng

2002, 26(3):  26-32 . 

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Since policy implications are outstanding in quantitatively analyzing the regional reasonable population size , it is even more necessary to evaluate strictly the accuracy of the research outcome .This paper takes East Huang Pu Area as an example , introducing briefly the possible reasonable population size in this area in the future by the EOP-MM Model and P-S Model .Based on that , the paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both models and puts forward the standard of selecting models for the quantitative analysis of regional reasonable population size .

New Challenges Encountered by Population Census

the Editorial

2002, 26(3):  33-44 . 

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The fifth national population census held in November 2000 is the first population census in socialist marketing economy system .Comprehensive and deep changes in the society present the population census with big challenges .Many people have noticed the possible difficulties the census will encounter and some opinions from scholars have been published in a previous forum in the 6th issue of Population Research in 1999 , which came to the conclusion that it is rather hard to obtain an accurate data in the 2000 census .The conclusion was confirmed in the process of the census .It can be anticipated that with the perfection of the marketing economy system and the enhancement of people' s awareness about privacy , many problems will continue to keep and emerge in the future surveys and censuses. Considering that , this forum invites opinions from four scholars on this topic .

Ideas and Contemplation of the “European Second Demographic Transition”

Jiang Leiwen

2002, 26(3):  45-49 . 

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Based on the generalization of European historical process of population changes, the theory of demographic transition was constructed. In the recent decades, population changes in Europe show new trends and features, basing on which the “ European Second Demographic transition theory” has been proposed.However , the new phenomenon and new theory are not referred at all in the discussion of demographic transition among Chinese scholars.This paper aims at summarizing the main perspectives of the “ European Second Demographic Transition” theory , comparing the main features of the first and second demographic transition, analyzing the mechanisms and the future trends of the transition .The last section briefs contemplation on the plausible paths of family and population development in China as well as in the world.

Inter-Provincial Differences and Future Development of Urban Size Structures in China

Wang Fang

2002, 26(3):  50-55 . 

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The present article makes a clustering analysis of urban size structures of provinces and autonomous regions in China in 1999 .The result of the analysis demonstrates that, urban size structures of many provinces and autonomous regions have some shortcomings, and there are certain differences among urban size structures of the three large regions .The article argues that , in the 21 century , the focal points of the development of the three large regions' urban size structures should be different based on each region' s feature , and whether in the Eastern Coastal Region , the Middle Region, or in the Western Region, the development of large cities should be and must be given priority .China needs to develop urban systems in which the structure of cities and towns of various sizes is reasonable and the whole urban function can be brought into full play .

Marriage Squeeze and its Perspective in China

Chen Youhua,Ulrich Mueller

2002, 26(3):  56-63 . 

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This paper presents a comprehensive observation on and analysis of the marriage squeeze status since the founding of the People' s Republic of China and its trend in the future and discusses the impact of various demographic factors on the balance of marriage market. The results show that under the double pressures of the drop in fertility rate since 1970s on one hand and the constant rise in sex ratio at birth on the other , the contradiction of marriage squeeze for men which has already existed tends to intensify .It is expected that China would experience serious marriage squeeze for men for several decades after 2010.The transference of the contradiction of marriage squeeze among districts induced by the huge difference in the socio -economic development would be unavoidable and present a bitter threat to the social stability .

Focusing on Health and Longevity of Male Population

Gui Shixun

2002, 26(3):  64-69 . 

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This article , based on surveys and statistical data available , gives an analysis to those aged women who , due to the loss of husband, are among the inferior group .During the later half of the 20th century , the gap of the average life span between yenders(male and female) is becoming larger in quite a few developed countries and regions, but it is not the inexorable trend.Although the morbidity of the female elders is higher than that of the male , the number of the male suffering from mortal diseases is greater than that of the female .For that reason, the author stresses that a deep -going study should be made on how to lengthen the female' s average future life span and on how to reduce the behavior factors that trap the male elders in mortal diseases at the same time , as to speed up the increment of the male' s average future life span so that the female elders can be primarily taken good care of .

Estimation of Educational Level of Chinese Working People in Three Industries Since 1978

Wang Jinying

2002, 26(3):  70-76 . 

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The purpose of the paper is to resolve the issues of the data quality of working people when used as an indicator of labor input in production function, and find out a viable method to re-estimate human capital stock and composition of educational level of Chinese working people in three industries .As a result , we provide the basic data for more accurate analysis of productivity and growth of three industries.