Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive observation on and analysis of the marriage squeeze status since the founding of the People' s Republic of China and its trend in the future and discusses the impact of various demographic factors on the balance of marriage market. The results show that under the double pressures of the drop in fertility rate since 1970s on one hand and the constant rise in sex ratio at birth on the other , the contradiction of marriage squeeze for men which has already existed tends to intensify .It is expected that China would experience serious marriage squeeze for men for several decades after 2010.The transference of the contradiction of marriage squeeze among districts induced by the huge difference in the socio -economic development would be unavoidable and present a bitter threat to the social stability .

Keywords: marriage market , marriage squeeze, sex ratio, index

摘要： 针对建国以来婚姻挤压情况及其发展趋势进行全面的考察与分析 ,讨论各人口学因素对婚姻市场均衡的影响情况。研究表明 :受 70年代以来生育率下降与 80年代以来出生性别比持续升高的双重挤压 ,使原本就存在的男性婚姻挤压矛盾趋于激化 ,预计在 2 0 1 0年后将经历几十年严重的男性婚姻挤压。因社会经济发展方面所存在的巨大差异而引发的婚姻挤压矛盾的地区间转移将不可避免 ,并对社会稳定等构成严重的威胁。

关键词:  婚姻市场, 婚姻挤压, 性别比, 指数