Abstract: Based on the generalization of European historical process of population changes, the theory of demographic transition was constructed. In the recent decades, population changes in Europe show new trends and features, basing on which the “ European Second Demographic transition theory” has been proposed.However , the new phenomenon and new theory are not referred at all in the discussion of demographic transition among Chinese scholars.This paper aims at summarizing the main perspectives of the “ European Second Demographic Transition” theory , comparing the main features of the first and second demographic transition, analyzing the mechanisms and the future trends of the transition .The last section briefs contemplation on the plausible paths of family and population development in China as well as in the world.

Keywords: Europe, the second demographic transition, the first demographic transition, population changes in China

摘要： 人口转变始于欧洲 ,人口转变理论的提出是基于对欧洲人口转变历史的研究。近年欧洲人口转变出现新的形式和特点 ,并发展出“欧洲第二次人口转变”理论。国内学者对我国人口转变问题的讨论中 ,却几乎还没有触及这一新情况和新理论。本文总结“第二次人口转变”理论的主要观点 ,对比第二次人口转变和第一次人口转变的特征 ,分析其转变的内在动因 ,及其未来的走向 ,并提出对世界和中国未来家庭及人口发展的思考。

关键词: 欧洲, 第二次人口转变, 第一次人口转变, 中国人口转变