Future Trends and Spatial Patterns of Migration in China

Population Research ›› 2007, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 9-19.

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Future Trends and Spatial Patterns of Migration in China

Cai Jianming¹, Wang Guoxia², Yang Zhenshan³

1 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101; 2 College of Economics and Management, Shanxi University, Shanxi 030006; 3 Utrecht University and ITC of the Netherlands

Online:2007-09-29 Published:2012-12-03
About author:1 Professor, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research; 2 Assistant Professor, College of Economics and Management, Shanxi University; 3 PhD Student, Utrecht University and ITC of the Netherlands

我国人口迁移趋势及空间格局演变

蔡建明¹，王国霞²，杨振山³

1 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101；2 山西大学经济与工商管理学院，山西 030006；3 荷兰乌德勒支大学，荷兰

作者简介:1 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所研究员、博士生导师；2 山西大学经济与工商管理学院博士；3 荷兰乌德勒支大学和荷兰国际地理信息科学与地球观测学院博士生

Abstract

Abstract: This paper discusses driving forces and types of migration in China,and forecasts migration trends and changes in spatial patterns of migration in the next 20 years.Finally the paper explores policy options that stimulate migration to occur orderly.Estimate of annual rural-urban migration during 2000-2020 is about 15 millions,and spatial patterns of future migration remain stable and changes will be small.The metropolitan areas will continue to be the major migration destinations.

Keywords: Migration, Floating population, Spatial pattern of migration

摘要： 文章从影响人口迁移的动力要素和迁移方式入手,从战略上把握我国不同地区未来人口迁移及空间格局的基本趋势,探索促进人口有序流动的各项政策。研究表明,2000～2020年我国每年从乡村迁入到城市的净常住人口数量将大体保持在1500万左右,并在链式迁移方式主导下,人口迁移的空间格局不会有太大的改变,仅出现一些微调,未来迁移人口还将主要集中在大都市区范围内。

关键词: 人口迁移, 迁移趋势, 空间格局, 演变

Cai Jianming, Wang Guoxia, Yang Zhenshan. Future Trends and Spatial Patterns of Migration in China[J]. Population Research, 2007, 31(5): 9-19.

蔡建明，王国霞，杨振山. 我国人口迁移趋势及空间格局演变[J]. 人口研究, 2007, 31(5): 9-19.

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Future Trends and Spatial Patterns of Migration in China

我国人口迁移趋势及空间格局演变

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