Abstract: Multinomial Logistic models are widely applied to economics and other social sciences.This paper begins with the theories and models of probabilistic-choice behavior and utility maximization,then discuss the logit model and its application in studying fertility choice.The paper examines impacts of individual factors and socio-economic policy on patterns of fertility choice,and quantitatively measures the importance and amount of the impacts through predicted probabilities,discrete changes and odds ratios of fertility choice.The paper finally discusses possible changes in fertility desire and behaviour resulting from changes in the determinants,and their policy implications for future population changes in China.

Keywords:  Rural Only Children, Fertility Choice, Influence Factors and Measurement, Multinomial Logistic Model

摘要： 本文基于北京市昌平区的农村独生子女调查数据,利用效用最大化离散选择模型,对农村独生子女生育选择模式及影响因素进行了分析。文章不仅考察了个体因素、经济与社会政策因素对生育选择模式的影响,更重要的是从生育选择的预测概率、离散变化以及Odds Ratios等多角度对影响因素的重要程度、影响大小等进行了定量测度分析。并从中推断起决定作用的因素发生变化时,可能导致的生育意愿、计划与行为的改变,探讨独生子女生育选择对中国未来人口变动趋势产生的影响和政策意义。

关键词: 农村独生子女, 生育选择, 影响因素与测度, Multinomial Logistic模型