Table of Content

29 May 2010, Volume 34 Issue 3

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Regional Competition and the Distribution of Floating Population in China

Ma Zhongdong,Wang Jianping

2010, 34(3):  3-16. 

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 Based on the 1% Population Survey of China in 2005,we examine the size and distribution of floating population in the context of regional competition.We found that the size of short-term labor migrants is not negligible,amounted to nearly 17 million,which accounted for 2% to 3% of the total population in the coastal regions.Totally 150 million migrants left their place of registration,mainly inter-provincial in the coastal regions and largely intra-provincial in the interior.Among seventy million interprovincial ones,three-fourth were originated from nine sending provinces in the interior and about three-fourth headed to Guangdong(34.2%),Yangzi-River-Delta Region(28.5%)and the Regions surrounding the Bohai Bay(13%).The destination choice between Guangdong and YRD region is mainly affected by distances to the two regions,being highly concentrated for a neighboring province but spread for distant ones.The above results reflect a strong magnet force of the growth poles on people in the interior as well as increasing regional competition for labor,which helps to explain the labor shortage in despite of massive labor migrations.

Determinants and Measurement of Fertility Choice for Rural Only Children:Empirical Analysis Based on Multinomial Logistic Model

Du Benfeng

2010, 34(3):  17-31. 

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Multinomial Logistic models are widely applied to economics and other social sciences.This paper begins with the theories and models of probabilistic-choice behavior and utility maximization,then discuss the logit model and its application in studying fertility choice.The paper examines impacts of individual factors and socio-economic policy on patterns of fertility choice,and quantitatively measures the importance and amount of the impacts through predicted probabilities,discrete changes and odds ratios of fertility choice.The paper finally discusses possible changes in fertility desire and behaviour resulting from changes in the determinants,and their policy implications for future population changes in China.

he Impact of Population,Economy and Technology on Carbon Dioxide Emissions——A Study Based on Dynamic Panel Model

Li Guozhi, Li Zongzhi

2010, 34(3):  32-39. 

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Climate change and carbon dioxide emissions problems have attracted worldwide attention.Generally speaking,the carbon dioxide emissions of a country are decided by the interaction of many factors,and the role of these factors may be different.Using data of China’s 30 provinces,this paper analyzes the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and population,economy and technology based on dynamic panel model.The results show that the influence of population,economy and technology on carbon dioxide emissions varies across different regions.While the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions is mutual,economic growth increases carbon emissions,but the technological progress reduces it.In addition,China’s carbon dioxide emissions are clearly path dependence;that is,current economic growth will affect the air quality after one to three years.Based on these findings,this paper provides suggestions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in order to facilitate China’s low-carbon economy.

The Mediating Effect of Urban and Rural Residence in the Model of Depression among Chinese Elderly

Tang Dan

2010, 34(3):  53-63. 

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Depression symptom is a key indicator of psychological well-being among the elderly.Drawing on the 10 Percent Data from the 2006 Survey on the Living Condition between Rural and Urban Elderly and utilizing exploratory factor analysis,multivariate analysis,and structural equation models,this paper examines the depression symptom among the elderly,and compares the differentials in depression between urban and rural elderly.Results suggest significantly different depression symptoms between them.Health status,financial condition and social support are significant predictors of the depression level.Location of residence acts as a mediating variable in the model of depression.The effects of health status and financial condition in the depression model differ by urban and rural residence.Contrary to the urban elderly,the power of finances is greater than that of health in model of rural elderly.

The Relationship between Widowhood and Mortality among Chinese Elderly——The Role of Spousal Care

Jiao Kaishan

2010, 34(3):  64-76. 

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 Base on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(1998-2005),We examine the relationship between the death of a spouse and mortality using Cox Proportional Hazard Model,and analyze the role of spousal care in this relationship.The results show that death of a spouse is a significant predictor of mortality of the elderly.Generally,the mortality of the continually widowed is higher than that of their continually married counterparts.Moreover,besides the oldest old female,transition from marriage to widowhood is associated with an initial increase in mortality,but this increase dissipates with age.However,we further find that the care from a spouse is an important factor which moderates the relationship between widowhood and mortality.Controlling for spousal care,the difference of mortality dramatically declines,which shows that the care from a spouse has an important effect on the life-span of the elderly.Finally,we find that there is to some extent gender difference and age difference in the role of spousal care.

Empirical Analysis on Impacts of Migration with and without Hukou Change on China’s Provincial Economy

Du Xiaomin, Chen Jianbao

2010, 34(3):  77-88. 

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Based on the preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of migration with and without hukou(i.e.,the household registration system)change and drawing on panel data in the past ten years,this paper uses random coefficient models to examine the impacts of migration on provincial economy growth in China.Analytical results show that:(a) migrations with hukou change across regions have been relatively stable,while migration without hukou change has increased rapidly and continuously since 2000 with extreme disparities across provinces;(b) the migration and mobility of the population is a Pareto improvement for China’s overall economy;(c) hukou in developed areas plays a role as the hourglass;(d) for most central provinces and some western provinces with large-size of out-migration,the negative impact of the loss of human capital due to large-scale out-migration on local economy began to come out;although out-migration has in general a positive impact,its contribution to local economic development is not as obvious as we expected.

Migrant Remittances and Household Income Inequality:A Counterfactual Analysis

Hu Feng

2010, 34(3):  89-100. 

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 Although remittances in China have become one of the main income sources for rural left-behind families,few studies have dealt with its impact on household income inequality at the place of origin.Drawing on survey data from Hubei,a central province with large-scale out-migrants,this paper examines how remittances may contribute to household income inequality.The results show that remittances can reduce the income inequality across households if remittances are treated as exogenous private income transfers.When selectivity of migration is taken into account and instrumental variable is introduced to construct the counterfactual income of migrant households,however,an opposite result emerges: remittances can enlarge household income inequality in sending areas because migrants usually come from rich households.

Statistical Analysis of Authors of the CSSCI Population Journals:1977-2009

Hou Jiawei

2010, 34(3):  101-108. 

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 Academic papers are an important expression of research outcomes of researchers,and the relationship between the number of authors and number of papers is expected to follow the pattern of research development.Using literature statistics,this analysis systematically and comprehensively examines all papers published in seven CSSCI population journals from the first issue to 2009.The major findings are:(1) the probability distribution of different paper size of authors among the total authors follows the Lotka Rule,and the proportion of new authors and old authors are reasonable in the seven journals;(2) new authors in the seven journals is significantly lower than the optimal value of Lotka Rule,suggesting that the research team is stable,but shows a sign of "aging" of authors due to lack of vitality.