Abstract: Based on the preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of migration with and without hukou(i.e.,the household registration system)change and drawing on panel data in the past ten years,this paper uses random coefficient models to examine the impacts of migration on provincial economy growth in China.Analytical results show that:(a) migrations with hukou change across regions have been relatively stable,while migration without hukou change has increased rapidly and continuously since 2000 with extreme disparities across provinces;(b) the migration and mobility of the population is a Pareto improvement for China’s overall economy;(c) hukou in developed areas plays a role as the hourglass;(d) for most central provinces and some western provinces with large-size of out-migration,the negative impact of the loss of human capital due to large-scale out-migration on local economy began to come out;although out-migration has in general a positive impact,its contribution to local economic development is not as obvious as we expected.

Keywords: Migration with Hukou Change, Migration without Hukou Change(or Temporary Migration), Panel Data, Random Coefficient Model

摘要： 在对近十年来我国人口迁移和流动的时空演变格局进行初步考察的基础上,文章利用面板数据的变系数模型分别实证考察了人口迁移和流动对我国各地区(省域)经济的影响。结果发现:(1)我国各地区间人口迁移相对平稳,而人口流动在2000年以后呈现出持续快速增长的态势,且空间流向极不均衡;(2)人口的迁移和流动对中国整体经济来说是一个帕累托改进;(3)户籍制度对于发达地区起到了人才沙漏的作用;(4)对于中部的绝大部分地区以及西部的一些人口输出大省,伴随人口迁出而引起的人力资本流失对当地经济的负面影响开始凸显出来,人口流出虽然基本出现一个正面影响,但对本地经济发展的贡献并不如我们预想的那么明显。

关键词: 人口迁移, 人口流动, 变系数面板模型