Abstract: Climate change and carbon dioxide emissions problems have attracted worldwide attention.Generally speaking,the carbon dioxide emissions of a country are decided by the interaction of many factors,and the role of these factors may be different.Using data of China’s 30 provinces,this paper analyzes the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and population,economy and technology based on dynamic panel model.The results show that the influence of population,economy and technology on carbon dioxide emissions varies across different regions.While the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions is mutual,economic growth increases carbon emissions,but the technological progress reduces it.In addition,China’s carbon dioxide emissions are clearly path dependence;that is,current economic growth will affect the air quality after one to three years.Based on these findings,this paper provides suggestions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in order to facilitate China’s low-carbon economy.

Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Dynamic Panel Model, Path Dependence

摘要： 气候变化和二氧化碳减排问题已经引起了世界性的关注。一般而言,一个国家的二氧化碳排放量是由多种因素共同作用决定的,并且这些因素对碳排放量的作用可能有所不同。文章基于动态面板模型,利用中国30个省份的相关数据,分析了二氧化碳排放与人口、经济、技术的关系。结果表明,人口、经济和技术对不同地区二氧化碳排放的影响是不一样的。其中人口对二氧化碳排放的影响呈现明显的双向性,经济增长对碳排放具有较强的促进作用,而技术进步则在一定程度上缓解了二氧化碳排放。另外,二氧化碳排放表现出明显的路径依赖现象,当期经济增长将至少对未来1~3年的空气质量产生影响。基于上述结论,文章提出了减少二氧化碳排放的相关政策建议,以适应中国的低碳经济道路。

关键词: 二氧化碳排放, 动态面板模型, 路径依赖