Abstract:  Based on the 1% Population Survey of China in 2005,we examine the size and distribution of floating population in the context of regional competition.We found that the size of short-term labor migrants is not negligible,amounted to nearly 17 million,which accounted for 2% to 3% of the total population in the coastal regions.Totally 150 million migrants left their place of registration,mainly inter-provincial in the coastal regions and largely intra-provincial in the interior.Among seventy million interprovincial ones,three-fourth were originated from nine sending provinces in the interior and about three-fourth headed to Guangdong(34.2%),Yangzi-River-Delta Region(28.5%)and the Regions surrounding the Bohai Bay(13%).The destination choice between Guangdong and YRD region is mainly affected by distances to the two regions,being highly concentrated for a neighboring province but spread for distant ones.The above results reflect a strong magnet force of the growth poles on people in the interior as well as increasing regional competition for labor,which helps to explain the labor shortage in despite of massive labor migrations.

Keywords: Floating Population, Population Size, Distribution of Migration, Regional Competition, Labor Shortage

摘要： 本文重新定义了流动人口概念,并分析了流动人口的实际规模及分布。广义流动人口包括离开户口所在地(乡、镇、街道)"半年以上"的长期流入者和"半年以下"经济型短期流入者。基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查的现有人口数据,我们发现经济型短期流入规模达1676.5万,占重要流入省市总人口比重的2%以上。2005年,全国流动人口总数在1.5亿左右,其中跨省流动人口大约6844万。省际流动的流入地及流出地都比较集中:近3/4来自中南及西南9个欠发达省份,3/4流向经济发达区域广东(34.2%),长三角(28.5%)和环渤海地区(13%)。对珠、长三角的选择由距离决定:邻近省选择高度集中,等距或长距时则分散到两个区域。以上分布显示沿海发达地区对中西部人口的强烈吸引力,也反映出区域发展多极化后发达区域间劳动力需求竞争加剧。

关键词: 流动人口, 人口规模, 人口口径, 区域竞争, 民工荒