Abstract: Population economists argue that different population age structure is related to divergent economic growth rate. Based on existing research on demographic dividend and integrating both quantitative and qualitative methods,this paper examines the effect of demographic dividend on population structure in Zhejiang Province from multiple perspectives,including fertility rate,age structure,dependence ratios,and migration. The author concludes that the demographic window of Zhejiang Province,while emerging early and lasting for a longer period,dissolves rapidly,despite that the inflow of migrants from other provinces has the potential of extending the demographic window. Hence,Zhejiang Province faces double challenges of restricted realization of demographic dividend as well as the demographic debt. Such findings have implications for policy responses to this complex situation.

Keywords:  Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend, Cashing of the Dividend

摘要： 人口经济学认为,处于不同年龄结构阶段的人口,对经济增长具有不同的影响。文章在梳理了国内外有关"人口红利"研究的基础上,以定量和定性分析相结合的方法,从生育率变动、人口年龄结构变动、人口负担系数及流动人口对浙江省人口结构的影响等方面进行人口红利的研究,并总结出浙江人口红利期的主要特点:即来得早,持续长,消失得也快;省外流入人口有可能延长省内人口红利期。同时指出现阶段既存在着制约兑现人口红利的不利因素,又面临人口负债期的严峻挑战。建议制定相应的政策措施,积极应对挑战。

关键词: 人口转变, 人口红利, 红利兑现