Abstract: China has had and will continue to have population opportunity window over a long period of time, but only under certain conditions it could be converted into demographic dividend. Compared to the increasing population quantity, it will be more effective and sustainable for China’s economic growth by improving population quality, developing human resources at all ages and participating into the global economy. The belief that China could only sustain its development by maintaining a large and cheap labor force and therefore China’s birth rate should be increased is a misunderstanding of the serious population situation in China and is detrimental to China’s economic structure transition. Adjusting population policy is essential for building a harmonious society, but it has nothing to do with the demographic dividend.

Keywords: Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth, Labor Force, Population Quality

摘要： 中国在很长的历史时期内存在人口机会窗口,但人口机会窗口只有在一定条件下才会转化为人口红利。与增加人口数量相比,提高人口素质、充分开发各年龄层次的人力资源、积极参与经济全球化则是我国经济增长更有效、更持久、可持续的人口动力和源泉。一些学者基于我国人口红利分析的基础上得出只有保持大量廉价劳动力才能保证发展,因此必须提高人口出生率的政策建议,显然没有认清严峻的人口形势,也不利于我国经济结构调整与发展方式转变,背离了我国人口发展战略。文章认为,从贯彻科学发展观、建设和谐社会出发,不断完善人口政策是必须的,但这与人口红利无关。

关键词: 人口红利, 经济增长, 劳动力, 人口素质, 科学发展观