Population Research

Balancing Urbanization by Coordinated Development between Megacities and Medium and Small Cities

Gu Shengzu, Li Hua, Yi Shance

2010, 34(5): 3-11.

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Urbanization plays an important role in expanding domestic demand and promoting economic growth. This paper examines characteristics and challenges in China’s urbanization, focusing on the unbalanced development of urbanization at the present stage. Policy strategies are discussed to promote steady development of urbanization. It is argued that balanced urbanization is the key and should be given top priority. Thus medium and small cities and megacities should be in coordinated development, and transferring of industries and labor forces should be guided to promote balanced development among regions.

Guided by Scientific Development to Construct a Population-balanced Society

The Research Group of Long-term Balanced Development of Population in China

2010, 34(5): 12-21.

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This article explores and explains the meaning and characteristics of population balance, arguing that population balance is characterized by complexity,dialectical unity,pluralistic and stereoscopic nature. Demographic equilibrium theory which has achieved a major breakthrough in modern science of population is the "gravity center" for population development and provides theoretical support for the scientific decision-making. Development of China’s population has successively experienced "survival","growing",and "developing" balanced states. Implementation of "comprehensive development of human resources","urban and rural integration" and "the main functional region" strategies is the necessary option for building a population-balanced society.

Readjusting Population Structure and Constructing a Population Equilibrium Society

Zhang Yi

2010, 34(5): 22-27.

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In order to establish a population equilibrium society, some problems should be addressed properly, such as population and environment equilibrium, population structure equilibrium and equilibrium between population and socioeconomic development. Natural environment can be only improved slowly; adjustment of population structure is the best choice to better the equilibrium between population, environment and social economy. Severe equilibrium problems that China currently faces are concerning sex ratio at birth, population aging and age structure, education and human capital structure, regional population distribution, urban and rural structure of population, and population class structure.

Demographic Dividend,Economic Growth and Population Policies

WangYing, Tong Jian, Jiang Zhenghua

2010, 34(5): 28-34.

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China has had and will continue to have population opportunity window over a long period of time, but only under certain conditions it could be converted into demographic dividend. Compared to the increasing population quantity, it will be more effective and sustainable for China’s economic growth by improving population quality, developing human resources at all ages and participating into the global economy. The belief that China could only sustain its development by maintaining a large and cheap labor force and therefore China’s birth rate should be increased is a misunderstanding of the serious population situation in China and is detrimental to China’s economic structure transition. Adjusting population policy is essential for building a harmonious society, but it has nothing to do with the demographic dividend.

The Open Letter and China’s Birth Planning

Editorial Board of Population Research

2010, 34(5): 35-50.

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Following on the journal’s last "Population and Development Forum" on commemorating the 30th anniversary of the Open Letter, this issue of the Forum extends the discussion on significance of the Open Letter and the unique model of China’s birth planning and demographic transition. Three scholars, namely Yang Wenzhuang, Liu Shuang and Wang Jinying, have been invited to contribute to this discussion. Yang summarizes the history and changes of China’s birth planning policy, arguing that birth planning in China initially adopted an approach of family planning by government support, which was changed to state planning by coercive measures, further to policy adjustment and reform, and finally to one that is human-centered with unified planning comprehensively addressing population issues. Liu suggests that China’s birth planning be assessed in a historical perspective and placed in the context of societal changes, and its enormous demographic and socio-economic effects are largely positive and long-lasting. Wang have worked out quantitatively the demographic, economic and environmental impact of China’s birth planning with the options it offers for future social and economic development.

Economic Poverty among the Elderly in the Era of Family Change:A Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis

Yang Juhua, Chen Zhiguang

2010, 34(5): 51-67.

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This paper examines the relationship between family change, public welfare and absolute economic poverty among the elderly age 65+ in transitional China. Drawing on both qualitative and quantitative data, and comparing different groups of the elderly population in poverty, it aims to shed light on a better understanding of the family and public welfare determinants of the elderly poverty, while taking into account the important role of socioeconomic factors in elderly life. Model results suggest that family structure and public welfare are important associates of absolute economic wellbeing: those elderly who live alone, widowed, without a son or without children are more likely to suffer from economic poverty, while those with retirement pension and public medicare suffer significantly less from poverty. Findings also demonstrate that socioeconomic status (including education and occupation) achieved in the early life stage is also strong predictor of their risk of suffering from economic poverty. Such findings have profound policy implications for the improvements of economic wellbeing of the elderly.

Dynamics of Nonagricultural Transfer of Rural Labour Force in China

Tong Yufen

2010, 34(5): 68-75.

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Since the reform and opening to the outside world there has been a rapid and continuing growth of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force in China. The existing studies on this issue are largely confined to migration or regional transfer of rural labor force. Meantime, because of the limitations of available data, there are few studies with time-series analysis. In this article, following the definition of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force, estimation is made of the amount and its time-series changes of non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force by using data derived from common primary statistics through simple calculations, with analysis of the dynamics of non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force in the context of China’s economic development and policy changes.

Labor Supply and Labor Demand Forecasting in China,2010-2050

Qi Mingzhu

2010, 34(5): 76-87.

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This paper forecasts labor supply and labor demand from 2010 to 2050 in China by adopting various population and economy forecasting methods. Results show that relationship between labor supply and labor demand will reverse after the year 2016. Even if total fertility rate increases to replacement level in the year 2020 and assumes unchanging trend in the future, China will still face long-term labor shortages, since the huge inertia of low birth rate has an irreversible effects to China labor market in the long run. By comparing labor supply and labor demand under different fertility scenarios, this paper proposes comprehensive policy suggestions related to short-term employment enhancement and long-term promotion of healthy and sustainable development of population and economy.

To Guide Migration Orderly and Promote Healthy Urbanization:Summary of International Symposium on Migration and Urbanization

Department of Service and Management on Migrant Population,National Population and Family Planning Commission of China

2010, 34(5): 88-92.

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Currently there are more than 100 million migrant rural population living in urban areas, who have achieved professional and regional metastasis, but did not achieve the changes of identity status. The task on citizenization of migrant rural population is arduous, and China should take measures early to prevent problems such as social integration and housing and child education of immigrants, urban greening, city traffic congestion, and the left behind children and elderly that occurred in the process of European urbanization. Although the flow of migrants to the southeast coastal areas still dominates, the trend of floating to the central and western regions has been increasing. Equalization of basic public services help to eliminate social conflict, and public finance should take the responsibility of supplying public service.

The Dilemma of Public Policies on Normalizing Imbalanced Sex Ratio at Birth and "Pareto Improvement" Path

Wu Fan

2010, 34(5): 93-103.

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From the perspective of the relationship between collective rationality and individual rationality, and collective behavior and individual behavior, this paper takes China’s 34 public policies on governing imbalanced sex ratio at birth(SRB) as examples to analyze public policy’s expression, functions and effects at the individual level. The analysis is done based on the theoretical framework of individual behavior pattern and using content analysis method, and it involves in individual behavior, including dimensions of cognition or attitude, emotion and behavioral intentions. Analytical results indicate that current public policies cover different dimensions of individual behaviors and shape guiding mechanism for individual behavior changes, but with imbalanced impacts and shortage of motions and influential channels. Furthermore, the paper explores the "Pareto improvement" path of individual reproductive behavior changes in line with the public policy mechanism to promote the normalization of high SRB, proposes public policy basis should be changed from "control-orientation" to "support-orientation".

Having an Auspicious Baby in an Auspicious Year? Empirical Research on Zodiac Preference in China,1949-2008

Ma Yan

2010, 34(5): 104-112.

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Zodiac preferences seem to be increasingly popular in our society. However, anecdotal evidence does not necessarily reflect an objective tendency. Using birth data from 1949-2008 in China, this paper applies the indices of age preference to testing preferences for Chinese Zodiac in fertility. Results show that at the national level whether for a single year, or a single Chinese Zodiac, or the whole twelve Chinese Zodiac, Zodiac preferences actually do not exist. Annual fluctuations in births are largely a result of changing population momentum built in the age structure. It is therefore important to overcome superstition of Chinese Zodiac, and to advocate the rational fertility concept in our society.

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