Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between family change, public welfare and absolute economic poverty among the elderly age 65+ in transitional China. Drawing on both qualitative and quantitative data, and comparing different groups of the elderly population in poverty, it aims to shed light on a better understanding of the family and public welfare determinants of the elderly poverty, while taking into account the important role of socioeconomic factors in elderly life. Model results suggest that family structure and public welfare are important associates of absolute economic wellbeing: those elderly who live alone, widowed, without a son or without children are more likely to suffer from economic poverty, while those with retirement pension and public medicare suffer significantly less from poverty. Findings also demonstrate that socioeconomic status (including education and occupation) achieved in the early life stage is also strong predictor of their risk of suffering from economic poverty. Such findings have profound policy implications for the improvements of economic wellbeing of the elderly.

Keywords: Family change, Public welfare, Elderly, Economic Poverty

摘要： 文章利用定量和定性数据,探讨家庭变迁和公共福利不足背景下老年人自评的绝对经济贫困的发生率和发生概率。模型分析结果显示:(1)家庭形式和居住安排、子女的数量和性别、老人的工作史等因素都作用于自评的经济贫困;(2)公共福利的有无对老人经济贫困的影响尤大;(3)孤寡老人、有女无儿的老人、农村男性老人的自评经济状况低于其他老人。由于绝对经济贫困往往是其他类型贫困之源,老人生活来源的不足影响到他们客观和自评的生活质量、健康水平、心理满意度等多个方面。结合6省的深度访谈资料,文章提出了改善老年人经济福利的政策建议。

关键词: 家庭变迁, 公共福利, 老年人群, 经济贫困