The Impact of China’s Family Planning Policy on Demographic Transition

Population Research ›› 2011, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 103-112.

The Impact of China’s Family Planning Policy on Demographic Transition

Tao Tao¹, Yang Fan²

1 Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872; 2 Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872

Online:2011-01-29 Published:2012-11-18
Contact: ttfly21351005@163.com
About author:1 PhD Student, Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China; 2 PhD Student, Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China

计划生育政策的人口效应

陶涛¹，杨凡²

1 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京 100872；2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京 100872

通讯作者: ttfly21351005@163.com
作者简介: 1 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士研究生;2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士研究生
基金资助:
本文受到中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金项目资助( 项目名称：中国性别失衡影响因素研究及对人口转变理论的拓展; 项目编号: 10XNH 087)。

Abstract

Abstract: This paper attempts to estimate how many births were averted in China by the family planning policy.Using country-level data from World Population Data Sheet from 1980 to 2008,regression models are constructed between economic,social and demographic variables from more than 140 countries without any family planning policy,total fertility rate(TFR) being the predicted variable.Different population trends are generated from population projections using estimated and actual TFR.Regression analysis yields a predicted TFR of about 2.5 in China in 2008 under the condition of no family planning policy.There were 458 million births were averted in China between 1972 and 2008 by the family planning policy,excluding the impact of economic and social development.

Keywords: Family Planning Policy, Total Fertility Rate, Population Projection

摘要： 文章试图估计计划生育政策使我国少生了多少人。利用1980~2008年世界140多个国家的数据来模拟在没有计划生育政策影响下经济社会变量与人口变量的相关关系,并据此对中国无计划生育条件下的总和生育率进行测算。将测算出来的无计划生育条件下的总和生育率和中国实际总和生育率分别代入模型进行人口模拟,比较无计划生育条件下和现实条件下人口增长的不同过程和结果。研究表明:无计划生育条件下,我国2008年生育率水平的预测值大概在2.5左右。1972~2008年间,排除经济社会发展的影响,单纯由于计划生育的作用,中国少生了4.58亿人。

关键词: 计划生育政策效果, 总和生育率, 人口模拟

Tao Tao, Yang Fan . The Impact of China’s Family Planning Policy on Demographic Transition[J]. Population Research, 2011, 35(1): 103-112.

陶涛，杨凡. 计划生育政策的人口效应[J]. 人口研究, 2011, 35(1): 103-112.

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