Table of Content

29 January 2011, Volume 35 Issue 1

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A Study of the Nonlinear Relationship between Population and Carbon Emissions

Wang Qinchi

2011, 35(1):  3-13. 

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Both theoretical and empirical analyses show that the relationship between population development and carbon emissions is dynamic,and the population elasticity of carbon emissions is a nonlinear function of population size,age structure,household size,urbanization,sex structure,and economic development.This paper argues that the model based on the hypothesis that the relationship between population and carbon emissions is nonlinear results in a better simulation to the historical data than does the traditional model,and also a better representation of the effects of population development and economic growth on carbon emissions.The effects of population development on carbon emissions are quite different in developed and developing countries.Therefore,coping strategies need to be adopted according to the actual situation of population development in order to mitigate climate change.

On Distribution Rationality of China’s Population:A Development Mode Perspective

Liu Jie,Wang Yucheng,Su Yang

2011, 35(1):  14-28. 

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The major objective of population policy for the main functional region division is to achieve the appropriate distribution of population and orderly population flow.Coordinated economy-population distribution is the most important "rationale" based on the interpretation of this objective.Results from models measuring the coordination of regional economy and population show that the "rationale" is common in developed countries and the economy-population distribution in China is irrational.Analyzing with the circulatory accumulation theory of Myrdal,it is concluded that the institutional determinant for the irrational population distribution in China is the "cutting corners" development mode without being "people centered",resulting in inefficiency of the interconverting channel of economic benefit and population welfare,and there are institutional barriers between economic development and population agglomeration.Institutional adjustment policies on finance and tax system,population management system and evaluation system of political achievement are discussed in the paper.

Population Control in Megacities

Liu feng, Huang Runlong, Ding Jinhong, Duan Chengrong

2011, 35(1):  29-43. 

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China has been urbanizing and big cities have been growing rapidly.Number of megacities in China increased from 34 in 1997 to 63 in 2007.There are substantial disputes over China’s urbanization strategy to prioritize big cities or medium and small-sized cities.Development of big cities faces challenges in transportation,housing,environment and resources and public services,and population control becomes increasingly important in big cities.This issue of Population and Development Forum is specifically devoted to population control in China’s megacities,for which three population experts were invited to share their views and suggestions.Professor Huang Ronglong,from Nanjing Normal University,argues that the major cause of China’s urban disease is not overpopulation but ill management of the cities.However,Professor Ding Jinhong,from East China Normal University,has a different view and asserts that a permanent cure to urban disease is population control.Talking on population control in Beijing,Professor Duan Chengrong,from People’s University of China,suggests the population control strategy be changed from a local to a national perspective.Three experts also provide policy suggestions in population control,city planning and management,industrial upgrading,mechanisms in evaluating demographic effect of social and economic programs,etc.Professor Liu Feng,from Development Research Center of the State Council,chairs the Forum and provides comments to the three papers and his own opinions as well.

A Longitudinal Study of the Dynamic Effect of Intergenerational Support on Life Satisfaction of Rural Elderly

Wang Ping, Li Shuozhuo

2011, 35(1):  44-52. 

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Using data from the 3-wave survey "Well-being of the elderly in Anhui Province" conducted in 2001,2003 and 2006 by the Institute for Population and Development Studies of Xi’an Jiaotong University,and employing individual growth models with the nested-structure data,this study investigates the dynamic influence of intergenerational support on life satisfaction of the rural elderly in China.Results show that receiving financial support from adult children,receiving and providing intergenerational assistance with household chores from and to adult children,and stronger emotional cohesion with children can increase the trend of life satisfaction.In the process of the influence on life satisfaction,receiving financial support could substitute for receiving the intergenerational assistance with household chores from the adults.This study reveals that benefit reinforcing effects derived from the main effect models are the influential mechanism of intergenerational support on life satisfaction of the elderly.

Age Trajectories of Intergenerational Exchanges among Older Persons in Rural China

Zuo Dongmei, Wu Zheng

2011, 35(1):  53-64. 

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With a life course perspective,this paper establishes multi-level growth curve models of intergenerational exchanges using data derived from a 4-wave longitudinal survey over the last decade in rural area of Chaohu City,Anhui Province.Throughout the entire life stage of the elder parents aged 60 plus,the respective effects of individual age,birth cohort and family life stage on family intergenerational exchanges are decomposed and the age trajectories of intergenerational exchanges are explored empirically and graphically.The results show that the intergenerational exchange is a dynamic process of individual development,historical trend and family strategy,the level of which depends on the synchronization of individual,historical and family time.

Urbanization in the Context of Citizenizing New Generation Peasant Workers

Dong Yanfang, Liu Chuanjiang, Hu Ming

2011, 35(1):  65-73. 

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Rural labor transfer in China is far from complete and stable as a result of what could be called Hidden Hukou Wall.Using data from the 2009 Wuhan Peasant Workers Survey conducted by Center for Population,Resource and Environmental Economics Research of Wuhan University,this paper examines the Hidden Hukou Wall as a resilient social screening system and its impact on migrant plan of the two generation peasant workers in the context of the China Path of rural labor transfer,suggesting that it is feasible and necessary to promote integration of policies for the development of small and medium sized cities in the Midwestern China,with those for facilitating peasant workers’ transfer to urbanites.

Building A Society with Population Equilibrium: Conditions, Problems and Countermeasures

Wang Jinying, Gu Yao

2011, 35(1):  74-81. 

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Balanced development of the population is the key determinant of the construction of a conservation-oriented and environment-friendly society.The family planning policy,beginning in the early 1970s in china,precipitated fertility decline,inhibiting the excessive population growth and facilitating the harmonious development of the economic and population growth.China has had low fertility for more than 20 years.Imbalanced development of population under the long-term low fertility generates more complicated population phenomenon,causing conflicts between population size and structure,labor supply and demand,and migration and regional development.Addressing these population challenges is central to the construction of a population equilibrium society.

Internal Balanced Development of Population:A Case Study in Western Region of China

Mao Changbao, Chen Yong

2011, 35(1):  82-92. 

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This paper defines the concept of internal balanced development of population with respect to its quantity and quality: in the process of population development,balance and coordination are gradually achieved in both quantity and quality of the components of the population,while the state of balance is temporary,relative and is constantly evolving from a lower level to a higher level of balance.An evaluation model of internal balanced development of population is developed and empirical analysis is conduced for the West China,suggesting that population development level,internal balanced development level and internal balanced sustainable development level are all low in the west region of China despite the fact that there are large differences within the region.

Choice and Restriction of Abortion in the Reproductive Process:Balance of Values in Terms of Norms and Practices

Zhan Zhongle

2011, 35(1):  93-102. 

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Normatively abortion is a remedy measure in family planning policies,while sex-selective abortions are prohibited.However,the prohibition encounters many problems including the difficulty of confirming the motivation of abortion and attaining the purpose for gender balance,the different treatment between women in compliance with the family planning polices and those violating the polices,and the absence of upper law setting for administrative licensing.In practice,sex-selective abortions have not been genuinely forbidden.Solutions to these problems lie in clearing the conflicts of rights of different subjects and balancing the values of these rights.

The Impact of China’s Family Planning Policy on Demographic Transition

Tao Tao, Yang Fan

2011, 35(1):  103-112. 

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This paper attempts to estimate how many births were averted in China by the family planning policy.Using country-level data from World Population Data Sheet from 1980 to 2008,regression models are constructed between economic,social and demographic variables from more than 140 countries without any family planning policy,total fertility rate(TFR) being the predicted variable.Different population trends are generated from population projections using estimated and actual TFR.Regression analysis yields a predicted TFR of about 2.5 in China in 2008 under the condition of no family planning policy.There were 458 million births were averted in China between 1972 and 2008 by the family planning policy,excluding the impact of economic and social development.