Abstract:  The emerging population phenomenon involving more and more mainland women going to Hong Kong to give birth provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to reveal new insights into and implications for future population growth and development.To the best of our knowledge,this study is the first linking the phenomenon of "Giving Birth in Hong Kong" to the theory of "Tragedy of the Commons".Through systematic analysis and model deduction,we aim to demonstrate two main points: First,the quality-quantity substitution rate of children is expected to decrease under the condition of gender preference;Second,the rich people would have more intentions to reproduce if family planning constraints are to be loosen.Accordingly,a theoretical exploration is conducted on the theory of the tragedy of the commons caused by the family′s rational reproductive choice.This study warns that birth rate tends to be going up in the economically developed areas,and as such,there is increasing potential of fertility rate bing rebounding.Therefore,we should stick tightly to the population control policy while strengthening family planning policy implementation and enhancing the new fertility culture.

Keywords:  Giving Birth in Hong Kong, Fertility Tragedy of the Commons, Population Size, Fertility Culture, Survival Security

摘要： 赴港生子是近年来中国大陆出现的新的人口现象,且多是能领社会风习之先的富人所为,其中必具诸多预示性内涵。文章通过现象解析、模型推演,证明在存在性别偏好的条件下,孩子的数量质量替代率下降;放宽约束条件后,富人更具多生的潜能;进而对理性家庭最优生育选择必将导致的生育公地悲剧展开理论探讨;并佐以浙江省近年来人口发展资料,揭示出在目前我国人口发展新情境中,部分富人,尤其是民营企业主的生育意愿有被激活且渐行释放的迹象,经济发达地区的生育率似有持续走高之势,生育率反弹的势能似在不断增强。藉此,应该继续维持现有政策执行力,增强新型生育文化的引致力。

关键词:  , 赴港生子, 公地悲剧, 人口规模, 生育文化, 生存安全