Table of Content

29 July 2012, Volume 36 Issue 4

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Family Endowment and Return Migration in Rural China

Yang Yunyan, Shi Zhilei

2012, 36(4):  3-17. 

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Objective Using data from a sampling survey of rural families in Hubei Province in Central China,this paper analyzes the factors influencing migrants′ decision making on their return migration.Two types of empirical models are performed to test the determinants of return migration decision of the new generation of migrants and the children of householder.Results indicate that rural labour migration is a rational choice of decision taking into account of a variety of factors including family endowment Effect,which is more apparent for the new generation of migrant workers.Family′s economic capital tends to impede return migration.The probability of return migration initially increases with accumulation of human capital and natural capital,but turns downwards after reaching a certain level.Members from families having abundant human capital can more fully and effectively use their social capital.Differences exist in utilizing social capital and natural capital between the first and the new generation of migrants.

Life Expectancy Growth，Age Structure Change and China' s National Saving Rate

Fan Xuchun, Zhu Baohua

2012, 36(4):  18-28. 

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Two of the population trends in China are population aging and increasing life expectancy.There are differing patterns of income,consumption and savings across different age periods.Using inter-provincial balance panel data,this paper analyzes the influence on the savings rate by the life expectancy growth and age structure changes basing on the theory of life cycle.Theory analysis shows that Life expectancy growth improves the steady-state savings,and age structure change affects individual saving behavior.The empirical analysis revealed that the increase of child population rates reduces national saving rate and the increase of old population rates improves national saving rate when the time effect is not controlled,while the increase of child population rates improves national saving rate and the increase of old population rates reduces national saving rate when the time effect is considered.The paper provideds a reasonable explanation to this conclusion.Testing using a variety of estimation methods and a range of combinations of related variable,we find that the conclusions obtained in this paper are robust.

The Development Path and Goal of China′s Family Policies

Chen Weimin

2012, 36(4):  29-36. 

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The development of family policy in China has experienced a completely different path from that in the United States and European countries.Contrary to the process of defamilization with the welfare regimes in the developed countries,the social welfare in China should be directed to familization,which means reframing welfare regimes in comformity with the premise of family responsibilities to provide benefits and protection for citizens by strengthening family functioning.China′s family policy has a dual task: on the one hand,enhancing family′s capabilities of welfare production and organization to supplement the inadequacy of social welfare development,and on the other hand,adjusting the organization of social welfare from "individual mode" to "family mode".China′s developmental family policies should be formulated with emphasis on enhancing capability of family development,developing pro-employment policies and assistance policies for workers to sustain their families.

Policy Approaches to Development Capacity of Family

Wu Fan,Li Jianmin

2012, 36(4):  37-44. 

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As the basic unit of human society，the normal functions of families represent an important prerequisite for the development of society．Development capability of family is the ability to meet the living and development needs of each family member，mainly including six capacities of support，economic ability，learning，social interaction and risk response，which can be achieved through two ways of intra － family construction and external social supports．However，with the process of weakening， transformation，externalization and socialization of family functioning，there are emerging new trends about families that corresponding structural imbalance between the needs and function of families and mechanism failure of self － supply and demand balance，as a result family capacity building depends on more external supports now than past．Therefore，we should focus on changing of the family' s core function and the difficulties faced by families，take family as a basic unit of social policy，actively build a family － friendly social environment and institutional support，thus fully promote the development capacity of family．

Family Policies in Western Countries and Their Implications for China

Sheng Yinan, Yang Wenzhang

2012, 36(4):  45-52. 

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In achieving universal welfare,early family policies in the Western countries were to reduce family poverty,and to enhance the welfare of their citizens.The Western countries completed the demographic transition in the 1960s to 1970s and family patterns changed dramatically.In order to accomplish their population and development strategy,family policies which oriented to universal welfare covering all citizens gradually changed into ensuring family welfare as well as encouraging population growth.The main policy instruments of the family policies in Western countries include family allowance and family tax reduction,maternity leave,child-raising allowance and job protection,child care facilities and education policy.Learning from policy experiences in Western countries and addressing the requirements of family development capability construction in China′s twelfth five-year plan period,this paper proposes a basic policy approach,that is ’ Ensure the basic needs,extend the coverage to all families,and integrate welfare into population regulation.

Factors Affecting Population Distribution in Mountainous Areas: Geographically Weighted Regression Using Data from Bijie

Zhang Yaojun, Ren Zhengwei

2012, 36(4):  53-63. 

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This is a case study in which data are collected from Bijie in Guizhou Province and geographically weighted regression is performed,with comparison with OLS,to explore the influence of economic,social and natural factors on population density.Results demonstrate that economic and social factors have larger impact on population distribution than natural factors.Altitude does not influence population distribution significantly while slope does.There is negative correlation between population distribution and economic strength,urbanization level,transportation and terrain conditions.Medical conditions have positive influence on population distribution.Therefore in the future Bijie should enhance city and town construction,strengthen the ecological immigration and protect natural resource and environments to optimize population distribution.

Rate of Ageing of the Chinese Oldest －old and Its Determinants

Huang Kuangshi; Lu Jiehua; Kirk Scott

2012, 36(4):  64-77. 

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Based on estimating the rate of ageing by calculating the change of frailty index of the Chinese oldest-old over time,this study concludes that the density distribution of rate of ageing looks like a cone with high proportion of samples converging the mean rate of ageing while the mean rates of ageing for the elderly at different ages are nearly the same,almost 2%-2.5% per year.The regression results show that all of the regression models of both early and present variables can explain at most 16% of the change of individual rate of ageing,which indirectly means that both the early experience and present status are not the main determinants of individual rate of ageing.Moreover,doing regular exercise both in early life and in present life,the adequacy of medical service if seriously ill and sufficiency of financial support for daily costs are helpful for the elderly to slow the rate of ageing,while most postulated determinants of rate of ageing are not tested statistically significantly in this study,including the birth place,current residcence,marriage times,availability of medical service both at around age 60 and in childhood,and experience of hunger in childhood.

Demographic Impact on Income Inequality: Evidence from Shenzhen and Chongqing

Zhang Zongyi, Du Peng, Wang Feng

2012, 36(4):  78-90. 

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Drawing upon data from a sample survey of urban residents conducted in July 2005 in Shenzhen and Chongqing,this paper examines and compares income distribution structure in the two cities.The technique of inequality decomposition by population subgroups has been used to study the effects of the Population Characteristics on income inequality.There is a much higher income inequality index in Shenzhen than in Chonqing,but personal identity characteristics,such as household registration and nationality,have less influence in Shenzhen than in Chongqing.The population′s industry and education compositions are the most important influencing factor of income distribution.Since employment industry and education level are closely related,improving financial input in education and balancing education resource distribution have important implications for preventing economic risk from income inequality in China.

Sexuality, Sexual Network and Risks of HIV Infection Among Money Boys(MB) in Northeast China

Fu Xiaoxing, Lei Zhang, Eric P.F.Chow, Ma Tiecheng

2012, 36(4):  91-102. 

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Money boys have become one of the emerging populations in the underground sex industry in China in recent years.Due to the rapid spread of HIV infection among Chinese MBs,MB is now one of the targeted populations in the HIV/AIDS intervention and prevention programs.This qualitative study employed participant observation,in-depth interview and focus-group methods to investigate the sexual networks among MBs and the operation mechanism of the sex industry in Northeast China.HIV intervention programs targeted different venues,services and self-identity among MBs should be implemented.

From Mainlanders′ Giving Birth in Hong Kong to Fertility Tragedy of the Commons

Zhu Zhongshi, Chen Hua

2012, 36(4):  103-112. 

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 The emerging population phenomenon involving more and more mainland women going to Hong Kong to give birth provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to reveal new insights into and implications for future population growth and development.To the best of our knowledge,this study is the first linking the phenomenon of "Giving Birth in Hong Kong" to the theory of "Tragedy of the Commons".Through systematic analysis and model deduction,we aim to demonstrate two main points: First,the quality-quantity substitution rate of children is expected to decrease under the condition of gender preference;Second,the rich people would have more intentions to reproduce if family planning constraints are to be loosen.Accordingly,a theoretical exploration is conducted on the theory of the tragedy of the commons caused by the family′s rational reproductive choice.This study warns that birth rate tends to be going up in the economically developed areas,and as such,there is increasing potential of fertility rate bing rebounding.Therefore,we should stick tightly to the population control policy while strengthening family planning policy implementation and enhancing the new fertility culture.