Table of Content

29 May 2012, Volume 36 Issue 3

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China′s Urbanization Strategy

Research Group of China Population and Development Research Center,Gui Jiangfeng,Ma Li,Jiang Weiping,Wang Qinchi,Zhang Xuyin,Chen Jiapeng,Wang Junping

2012, 36(3):  3-13. 

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This research develops specific goals,paths and strategies of urbanization in China upon analyzing the Chinese characteristics and future trends of urbanization.Urbanization will become basic national conditions of China′s future social development,which will have significant impacts on the sources and driving forces of future prosperity and development.However,current challenges in China’s urbanization are that population urbanization lags behind industrialization and land urbanization,and urbanization of the household registered population lags behind urbanization of the resident population.China′s urbanization development will be shifted from a pure speed approach to an approach combining speed with quality during the "Twelfth Five-Year plan" period,and the economic reform will enter into a new stage characterized by promoting in-depth urbanization and urban-rural integration.An urbanization model with Chinese characteristics would be developed by taking urbanization as the leading force in deepening the reform,directing at household registration system reform and employment promotion,enhancing urbanization quality,and promoting equalization of rural and urban public services.

Population Aging,Population Growth and Economic Growth: Evidence from China′s Provincial Panel Data

Hu Angang,Liu Shenglong,Ma Zhenguo

2012, 36(3):  14-26. 

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Using the Solow growth theory and a modified Cobb-Douglas production function which contains human capital,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging and population growth on economic growth.Theoretical analysis shows that both population aging and population growth have negative influence on economic growth.Empirical models on the basis of theoretical analysis are constructed and China′s provincial panel data from 1990-2008 for empirical test are collected.Model results correspond to the results of theoretical analysis.The research also shows that:(1) initial GDP per capita has negative effect on economic growth,indicating conditional convergence in China′s regional economic growth;(2) human capital investment,saving rate and labor force participation rate all have positive influence on economic growth.

Measurement and Theoretical Perspectives of Immigrant Assimilation in China

Zhou Hao

2012, 36(3):  27-37. 

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After summarizing the theories and measurement indices of assimilation,this paper examines and re-constructs the measurement framework of assimilation at individual level,followed by discussing some theoretical questions of assimilation in present China.Assimilation could be one point on the line connecting adaptation,segmented assimilation and assimilation.Measurement indices framework of immigrant assimilation in destination should be simplified with high validity,corresponding to the theories.Assimilation can be divided into five dimensions: economic,cultural,social,structural and identity.Future research should be directed at the final direction of the assimilation of migrants,and the causal chain centered on the assimilation(the status and the causes and consequences of assimilations),and longitudinal or panel survey studies should be enhanced to understand the situation and development trajectory of assimilation of migrants in China.

Assimilation and Acceptance: An Empirical Study on Migrants’ Social Assimilation from Interactive Perspective

Song Yueping,Tao Ye

2012, 36(3):  38-49. 

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Focusing on the urban residents’ attitudes towards migrant population in determining migrants’ social assimilation,this paper theoretically explores factors of urban residents’ attitudes toward migrants and empirically tests their impact on migrants’ initial intention of becoming urban citizens and actual evaluation when they are trying to do that.Based on the Floating Population Survey data conducted by National Population and Family Planning Committee in 2010,the empirical results show that though sharing similar expectations on migrant groups,urban residents from different social and economic backgrounds show evident differences when it comes to personal acceptance desire;and their attitudes of acceptance could exert a remarkably positive effect on migrant population’s intention especially the objective evaluation when they are trying to be included by the city and its residents.And it is key important to set up an logically consistent policy system to promote the extensive and intensive social assimilation of migrating population.

Fuzzy Multi-Objecetive Models for Rural Labor Migration Decision

Wang Chunrui, Liu Changhui, Liu Jiaqiang

2012, 36(3):  50-61. 

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This paper constructs fuzzy multi-objective decision models for destination selection of rural labor migration under unbiased and biased information,which are examined using survey data from Hebei Province.Theoretical models suggests that,when faced with multiple choices of destination,whether under unbiased or biased information,the most satisfactory choice is outside the county but within the city due to a web of influences of income level,family environment and individual capability.However,survey data show that nearly 40 percent of rural migrants choose their destinations within the county.The differences between theoretical models and empirical results suggest that most of the investigated rural labor migrants did not achieve optimal migration,and their migration behavior exhibited limited rationality.

On the Theoretical Basis of Dealing With China′s Population Aging

Dang Junwu

2012, 36(3):  62-67. 

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The content,nature,source and manifestations of aging issues are redefined in this paper from the perspectives of social form theory and the history of rise and fall of human societies.The article argues that the core theme dealing with aging issues has been consistent over the last three decades,whereas researches have turned to multiple perspectives i.e."elderly issue-structure issue-social form-social rise and fall",reflecting an important transition of research orientation and theoretical basis,that is the transition from research on practical issues(issue orientation) to research on social form(theory orientation),from finding solutions to building new social form.The paper suggests that aging issues be dealt with in a long term perspective,guaranteeing the stability of the country and achieving great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Effects of Adult Children′s Migration on Their Financial Support to Old Parents

Zhang Wenjuan

2012, 36(3):  68-80. 

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Using data from a survey of rural-urban migrants in China conducted by Renmin University of China in 2009,this paper conducts an empirical study on the finical support from out-migrants to their old parents in rural China.Social economic status of migrants as well as characteristics of migration process are introduced into analysis.Results show that migration patterns and socio-economic characteristics of migrants have significant impacts on their behaviors of aging support.Out-migration has conflicting effects on improving the economic status of out-migrants and taking their traditional obligation of family support.Importantly the traditional intergenerational support patterns of reciprocity and exchange are maintained in families of migrants′ parents.The corporate group model is still the regulation for division of aging support among adult children whose migration behaviors become important characteristics in adjusting the division of family support.

Revisiting the Tempo Adjusted Total Fertility Rate

Hao Juan;Qiu Changrong

2012, 36(3):  81-88. 

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The Tempo Adjusted TFR(TFR’) is proposed because of the disadvantages of the Total Fertility Rate in representing the lifetime fertility level.However,is the TFR’ reasonable and accurate? This paper discusses the assumptions,data requirements and calculating method of TFR’.Examinations and tests of the TFR’ are conducted using Chinese data.The paper concludes that the assumptions of this method are problematic,this index is sensitive to the change of the mean age at childbearing,and serious error in the measurement could occur.The issue of the impact of average childbearing age on total fertility rate needs further exploration and research.

The Application of Generalized Linear Model in the Graduation of Life Table Mortality Rates

Zhang Lianzeng;Duan Baige

2012, 36(3):  89-103. 

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Attempt has been made in this research to apply generalized linear models in graduating China′s life table mortality rates.Using demographic data of deaths by age and gender from China Population Statistical Yearbooks 1995-2006 and Statistical Yearbooks of China′s Population and Employment 2007-2010,the relationships between mortality and age and between mortality and year are explored by fitting death rates at ages from 0 to 89 using Poisson regression and negative binomial regression.Upon comparison of the fitting effects of the two models,the paper proposes to use B-spline function to smooth the death rates.Implications of this study are discussed for constructing China′s empirical life tables,providing theoretical foundation and practical reference for mortality analysis by China Insurance Regulatory Commission,and achieving market-oriented rates of life insurance and scientific management of the life insurance industry in China.

Rural Family Planning and Farmers′ Life Satisfaction

Luo Xiaofeng

2012, 36(3):  104-112. 

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Drawing upon data from a survey of 1586 farmers in 6 provinces in China,this paper examines impacts of rural family planning work,rural health services,regional environmental characteristics,farmer’s personal characteristics,and family characteristics on farmers’ life satisfaction using ordinal logit model.Results show that rural rewarding and supporting policy in family planning has significant impact on farmers’ life satisfaction,while punishment for out-of-plan births has no significant impact.Two factors of rural health services,treatment improvement after participating in the new cooperative medical care system and the burden of medical expenses,have significant impact on farmers’ life satisfaction.Following policy recommendations are proposed: government should gradually increase the proportion of the expenditure in public services in rural areas,further improve the system of interest-oriented policy,properly upgrade incentives and assistance,and increase the punishment on the rural families for out-of-plan births corresponding to their income and property.