Population Research

Distortions in Period TFR and Improvements on Its Adjustment

Guo Zhigang

2012, 36(5): 3-14.

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Tempo －adjustment TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney has resulted in extensive discussions and new trials for improvement in its measurement．This paper outlines the major theoretical debates pertaining to this method and the new achievements in improving the indicators ever since．This approach has been extended to period life expectancy and nuptiality rate．The paper briefly discusses the important findings by Yamaguchi and Beppu and their innovative solutions in adjusting period total fertility rate．In particular，the latest study by Bongaarts and Sobotka is reviewed in the paper，which proposed a demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility with a new indicator，tempo－and parity －adjusted total fertility．There was a paramount role of diminishing tempo and parity composition effects in explaining the recent rise in TFRs．This paper concludes with some comments on the improvement in period adjusted indicators and discusses the issues needed for further consideration．

Family Structure and Female Labor Force Participation in China

Shen Ke, Zhang Yuan, Yan Ping

2012, 36(5): 15-27.

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Employing the 2002 household survey data in 9 provinces in East China，this paper examines
the effect of family structure on female and male labor force participation．Constructing regression models with instrument variables to correct for the endogeneity of family structure，our results indicate that intergenerational coresidence significantly increases female labor force participation and weekly working time，while it has no effect on male labor supply．A major reason is that coresidence help to reduce female housekeeping burden through their parents' assistance，which frees up time for work in labor market．These results suggest that decline in intergenerational coresidence in the past two decades could contribute to the more rapid decrease in female labor force participation in China．

Research on Population Carrying Capacity: Evolution,Problems and Prospect

Tong Yufen

2012, 36(5): 28-36.

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There have long been debates and conflicting arguments in the studies of population carrying
capacity． This paper examines dilemmas and challenges in the studies of population carrying capacity．There are three major difficulties in the research of population carrying capacity: difficulty in conducting quantitative models of population carrying capacity with empirical researches due to limitations in theoretical hypotheses，difficulty in accurately determining the results of population carrying capacity due to the changing nature and the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors of population carrying capacity，and difficulty in operationalizing policy measures deriving from the research on population carrying capacity．The author argues that population carrying capacity exists objectively，and scholars should not abandon their research just because of the difficulties and problems in the studies of population carrying capacity．There is a need in the research on population carrying capacity to disembarrass of that of biological carrying capacity．Studies on population carrying capacity need to be conducted in dynamic perspectives．

Socio-Demographic Analysis of Social Support of the New Generation Migrants

He Hong, Zhi Xin

2012, 36(5): 37-46.

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To investigate socio － demographic characteristics of the social support and to provide information for establishing a health promotion pattern of social support among the new generation migrants in China，a questionnaire survey was conducted among 2271 new generation migrants and 997 local residents in 2010．The average of the total scores in social support is ( 33．81 ± 5．09) ，involving three dimensions which are objective support，subjective support and utilization of support whose average score are ( 5．71 ± 1．50) ，( 21．28 ± 3．88) and ( 6．82 ± 1．80) respectively．Migrants have significantly lower levels in overall social support，objective support，and utilization of support than local residents． Marital status has significant impact on social support，that is，married migrants have markedly higher social support level than those unmarried．While social support generally tends to be low in the new generation migrants，marriage has some advantages in receiving social support．

Localized Social Capital and Social Integration of Migrants in Urban China

Ren Yuan, Tao Li

2012, 36(5): 47-57.

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One of the most important tasks of urbanization in China today is to accelerate large amount of migrants integrating into urban society．Different from existing researches which focus on hukou system and institutional reforms，this paper emphasizes the role of social capital and social mechanism in improving social integration of migrants，calling for a closer relationship between migrants and urban local residents．Improving the quantity and quality of Localized Social Capital ( LSC) would be a crucial factor contributing to social integration of migrants．The paper defines and measures LSC in three dimensions: Social Participation ( SP) ，Social Trust ( SC) and Social Intercourse ( SI) ，and analyzes how those LSCs have influenced social integration of migrants．While SP and ST have significant effect on migrants’social integration，the effect of SI is not significant．The paper discusses policy implications for enhancing migrants’LSCs to promote their social integration: encouraging more social participation and involvement in public affairs; cultivating mutual trust between migrants and local residents; and developing more positive intercourse and communications between migrants and local residents．

Impact of Migration on Average Age at First Marriage in Beijing

Gao Ying, Wu Hao

2012, 36(5): 58-68.

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Drawing upon data from marriage registration，this paper examines recent trends in the average age at first marriage of newly married population in the past eight years in Beijing．The male's average age at first marriage stood at 28．05 years and stayed rather stable，while the female' s averaged at 26．21 years but shows a significant increasing trend．Analysis by migration type demonstrates that the average age at first marriage of migrants ( hukou in Beijing but native place not in Beijing) is significantly higher than the average level of all，which pushes up the general average age at first marriage． The average age of newly married male floating population ( hukou not in Beijing) is similar to that of the migrants and also lifts up the general average marriage age，but the impact of female floating population is opposite．Moreover，because of the gender difference in terms of the proportion of cross household registration intermarriage，female local population suffers to certain extent some marriage squeeze．Under the influence of marriage gradient and matching customs of“older husband with younger wife”，the average age at first marriage of female local population in Beijing may be further delayed in the long run．

Triple Disadvantages: Social Exclusion and Economic Integration of Young Rural-to-Urban Migrants to the Host Society in China

Yang Juhua

2012, 36(5): 69-83.

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In the process of large － scale internal migration and rapid pace of urbanization in the past two decades，rural － to － urban young migrants，defined as those born after 1980 to parents with a rural hukou registration，have become one of the most vulnerable segments of the population who might be triply disadvantaged．Drawing on the 2005 National 1% Population Survey data，this paper explores the patterns，status，and associates of economic integration of young migrants with a rural hukou registration ( i．e．，rural － to － urban migrants) to the host society．Preliminary findings suggest that the level of economic integration of young migrants is rather low，particularly for those with a rural registration．Such phenomena challenge the notion that marketization necessarily promotes rights and legal equality in a linear fashion，and the potentially positive impact of migration on development might be compromised by institutional constraints ( e．g．，hukou) and local residents' discrimination towards outsiders，particularly the youths．It also suggests that the pace of socioeconomic integration is lagged behind socioeconomic development．

Factors Influencing Intention to Work among the Unemployed

Wu Lei

2012, 36(5): 84-93.

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Intention to work depicts the intention of the unemployed to be reemployed．Factors influencing intention to work among the unemployed are hypothesized according to the literature and are analyzed using data from a sample of 36 reemployed employees in Beijing．With the retrospective， qualitative data，their intention to work is described and factors influencing the intention are identified． The results indicates that intention to work has both positive and negative dimensions．Financial factor， individual characteristics，work value and norms，and social factor influence the positive dimension， while human capital，health，family，and labor market factors influence the negative dimension．Theoretical and policy implications of the results are discussed．

Does Population Ageing Aggravate Income Inequality? Evidence from China 1996-2009

Dong Zhiqiang, Wei Xiahai, Tang Canqing

2012, 36(5): 94-103.

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Since inequality differs cross population groups，changing population age structure may
have an effect on overall income inequality．This paper develops an analytical ( statistical) model to describe conditions under which population ageing could aggravate income inequality，and show theoretically and empirically that the conditions are true in China．Thus，it is hypothesized that population ageing aggravates inequality in China．With Gini coefficient as measurement of income inequality，and employing provincial level panel data over 1996 － 2009，this paper confirms that population ageing ( i．e．an increasing aged dependency ratio and a decreasing child dependency ratio) is a positive and significant factor contributing to income inequality．This suggests that inequality studies need to incorporate
population ageing，as it conveys different policy implications as compared to other factors．

The Situation and Path Selection of China′s Social Support System for the Elderly

Liu Xiaomei

2012, 36(5): 104-112.

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China is experiencing rapid ageing of population，characterized by a large old － age population which is growing rapidly and a rising proportion of the oldest － old．In contrast to other ageing countries，China has a lower level of economic development，a society typically being described to be " getting old before getting rich" ．Chinese traditional home － based old － age support pattern is challenged by the accelerated population aging，while the elderly social support patterns，such as those that are community － or institution － based，are still under － developed，resulting prominent contradiction between service supply and demand．Experiences from developed countries in Europe and America show that transition from home － based to social － based support is the main trend of the changing old － age support system．In addressing the population aging challenge，China needs to accelerate the " socialization and professionalization" process of the elderly support service，construct a social support system that adapt to the national conditions，develop the elderly support service industry，and thus turn the " silver-hair industry" into a new " sunrise industry" ．

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