Population Research ›› 2012, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 3-14.

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Distortions in Period TFR and Improvements on Its Adjustment

Guo Zhigang   

  1. Department of Sociology,Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Online:2012-09-29 Published:2013-02-01
  • Contact: zguo@ pku.edu.cn
  • About author:Professor,Department of Sociology,Peking University

常规时期生育率失真问题及调整方法的新进展

郭志刚   

  1. 北京大学中国社会发展研究中心,北京 100871
  • 通讯作者: zguo@ pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:教授,北京大学中国社会发展研究中心
  • 基金资助:

     教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国低生育率研究”(项目批准号:12JJD840005)

Abstract: Tempo -adjustment TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney has resulted in extensive discussions and new trials for improvement in its measurement.This paper outlines the major theoretical debates pertaining to this method and the new achievements in improving the indicators ever since.This approach has been extended to period life expectancy and nuptiality rate.The paper briefly discusses the important findings by Yamaguchi and Beppu and their innovative solutions in adjusting period total fertility rate.In particular,the latest study by Bongaarts and Sobotka is reviewed in the paper,which proposed a demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility with a new indicator,tempo-and parity -adjusted total fertility.There was a paramount role of diminishing tempo and parity composition effects in explaining the recent rise in TFRs.This paper concludes with some comments on the improvement in period adjusted indicators and discusses the issues needed for further consideration.

Keywords: Fertility, Period indicator, Cohort quantum, Distortions

摘要: Bongaarts和Feeney提出的去进度效应总和生育率引起了学术界广泛争议、讨论和各种新的尝试。文章梳理了这一研究上的理论争论,简要介绍在此方法方面的重要进展。十年来,去进度效应方法的应用已经从总和生育率扩展到平均预期寿命以及时期婚姻指标。文章还简要介绍了Yamaguchi和Beppu在改进去进度效应生育指标时的重要发现及其研究思路的创新。特别介绍了Bongaarts和Sobotka的最新研究成果,他们新提出了TFRp*指标,用以分析欧洲国家近年生育率的回升,发现TFR回升的主要原因是时期效应的减少和消失,而时期生育的数量水平其实相当平稳。在此就时期调整指标方面研究的进展做些评论,并讨论需要进一步思考的问题。

关键词: 生育水平, 时期指标, 队列指标, 进度和孩次构成效应