Abstract: This paper develops a theoretical model of long-term balanced population development，in which long-term balanced population development incorporates internal balance，external balance and overall balance of the population system leading to coordination and sustainability． According to the theoretical
model，the paper constructs an index system and evaluation model of long-term balanced population development，evaluating the extent to which balanced development，coordination and sustainability are achieved．An empirical analysis of the model is conducted using data from Sichuan Province over 1982-2010 to assess the long-term population development in Sichuan province． Results suggest that a great progress has been made in the long-term balanced population development of Sichuan in the past thirty years． However，challenges remain．

Keywords: Long-term Balanced Population Development, Population Equality, Optimum Population, Measurement Model

摘要： 文章在综述学术界现有研究成果的基础上,深入探讨了均衡、人口均衡、人口长期均衡发展的内涵和基本特征,构建了人口长期均衡发展的理论模型,认为均衡的基本含义就是协调性和可持续性,人口长期均衡发展的内涵是人口内外部各子系统同时具备了协调性和可持续性的状态,其内容包括内部均衡、外部均衡和总体均衡三个方面。在这一理论框架下提出了人口长期均衡发展的指标体系和评价模型,从人口内部、人口外部、人口总体三个方面,分别对人口长期均衡发展水平、协调度和可持续度进行测评,并利用1982~2010年的数据对四川省主要年份人口长期均衡发展状况进行了验证分析,结果显示四川人口长期均衡发展30年来取得了长足的进步,但形势仍然较为严峻,不容乐观。

关键词: 人口长期均衡发展, 人口变量均衡, 人口行为均衡, 测度模型