Population Research

On China's Urbanization: Knowledge Rebuilding and Practice Rethinking

Luo Chun

2013, 37(5): 3-15.

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The paper develops a theory of urbanization which examines the concept of urbanization in two layers，general and special，establishes three forms of urbanization and their relationships in different stages of development in the context of general urbanization，and explains two sorts of misdirection in the
practice of Chinese urbanization． The paper argues that urbanization is a centralizing result of many factors，and urbanization needs to be preceded with non-agriculturalization． Chinese urbanization is now getting accelerated，but will present multiple and diversified patterns across China due to regional development disparities and institutional barriers in China． A sustainable urbanization in China needs to be framed in local contexts and practices．

A Theory and Empirical Model of Long-term Balanced Population Development

Zhang Junliang, Guo Xianchao

2013, 37(5): 16-29.

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This paper develops a theoretical model of long-term balanced population development，in which long-term balanced population development incorporates internal balance，external balance and overall balance of the population system leading to coordination and sustainability． According to the theoretical
model，the paper constructs an index system and evaluation model of long-term balanced population development，evaluating the extent to which balanced development，coordination and sustainability are achieved．An empirical analysis of the model is conducted using data from Sichuan Province over 1982-2010 to assess the long-term population development in Sichuan province． Results suggest that a great progress has been made in the long-term balanced population development of Sichuan in the past thirty years． However，challenges remain．

Filial Piety of Children as Perceived by Aging Parents in China:Trends and Determinants

Du Peng, Qu Jiayao

2013, 37(5): 30-41.

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How do Chinese elderly perceive their children‘s filial piety in the context of rapidly ageing population and changing families in the first decade of 21st century? What are the factors affecting their perceptions? This paper aims to answer these questions by analyzing the data of China National Survey on Urban and Rural Elderly in 2000 and 2010 conducted by China Research Centre on Ageing． Results show that the proportion of the older people who perceive their children to be filial increased between 2000-2010． Similar trends are observed both over time and across cohort． The major determinants for the older parents perceiving their children's filial piety are children's filial behaviors and parents’ health status． Contrary to the traditional values such as "more children more happiness" and " raising children to protect against the old age"，an important finding from this research is that the elderly people having daughters and fewer children give more positive perceptions on their children's filial piety．

Spatial Effect of Population － Economic Distribution Consistency in China

2013, 37(5): 42-52.

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Abstract: Using regional data from 1990 to 2010 in China，the paper examines trends，determinants，regional disparities and spatial effects of population and economic distribution consistency． Results show that population density is much smaller than economic density at national level and in the east regions，while population density is larger than economic density in middle and west regions of the country． Spatial dependence and spatial concentration exist in the population － economic distribution inconsistency in China． Material capital，human capital，infrastructure construction and policies are the main influencing factors when economic level and structure are controlled． There are prominent differences in the above factors in determining regional population － economic spatial distribution inconsistency． Further，neglecting spatial effect of population － economic distribution inconsistency could result in underestimation of market mechanism and overestimation of the role of the government．

Impact of Urbanization on China s Economic Growth and Its Spatiotemporal Differentiation

2013, 37(5): 53-67.

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Abstract: There are substantial studies on China s rapid urbanization and its impact on economic development． An econometrical model is constructed in this paper to examine the impact of both population urbanization and space urbanization on economic development in China when controlling for investment and consumption，and regression estimates are made using panel data at provincial level． Results show that both population urbanization and space urbanization had a great boost to investment which in turn promoted economic growth，but had little effect on consumption． Since the new urbanization strategy was implemented in 2007，effects of population urbanization on economic growth have been considerably improved，especially via
consumption，while investment driven by space urbanization also has had much larger effects． Both population urbanization and space urbanization have promoted economic growth through investment in the Eastern Region，while in the Central and West Regions，population urbanization has had largely insignificant effects on economic growth． Although space urbanization did promote economic growth through investment，it was well offset by the inhibiting effects of consumption． Policy implications are discussed in the paper．

Infant Mortality and Under － five Mortality Rate in China s 2010 Census: An Assessment

2013, 37(5): 68-80.

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Abstract: China s 2010 census reported extremely low infant mortality and under － five mortality rates． This paper examines quality of data of the infant mortality and under － five mortality rates obtained from the 2010 census by comparing between various data sources． The paper reviews international experiences in changing infant mortality and under － five mortality rates and their relations with social and economic development，demonstrating that the infant mortality and under － five mortality rates obtained from Chinas 2010 census are well beyond the general patterns obsevred in other countries． Applying Coale － Demeny model life tables and Brass logit models，this paper provides an estimate of China s 2010 infant mortality and under － five mortality rates，with the infant mortality rate being 18 － 19 per 1000 and under － five mortality rate 22 － 23 per 1000，contrasting to 3. 8 per 1000 and 6 per 1000 directly derived from the 2010 census．

Health Inequality among the Chinese Elderly:Changes,Regional Disparities and Determinants

Du Benfeng, Wang Xuan

2013, 37(5): 81-90.

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This paper examines patterns and trends in health inequality of the Chinese elderly over 1998－2008 using data from Chinese Longevity Health Longitudinal Survey with techniques for spatial analysis．While health status of the Chinese elderly was improving steadily，widening inequality was observed，which
was more serious in rural than in urban areas． There are significant differences in health status of the elderly across the provinces of China． Health status of older people was the best in the eastern region，better in the central region，and worst in the western region． The rural old，female old，oldest old，and older people without spouse had significantly poorer health than their counterparts． More attention and policy support need to be given to those "multiple vulnerable" groups，in order to improve their health status and health inequality．

Returnees Reflux in China: Knowledge Spillovers and Threshold Effect

Yang Heqing, Chen Yian

2013, 37(5): 91-102.

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This paper examines technology spillover effect of overseas returnees according to a threshold panel model of overseas returnees． By using China＇s 1995 － 2011 provincial panel data，the paper explores empirically the relationship between the number of returnees and knowledge spillovers． The results show that returnees as new channels of international knowledge transfer have a significant effect on knowledge spillovers which can promote technological progress; once the number of returnees reached above a certain threshold value，its knowledge spillover effects get jumped and accelerated． The stronger the absorptive capacity of local human capital，the better the acception of the returnees knowledge spillovers． At the same time，the absorptive capacity of local human capital has single threshold effect to returnees knowledge spillovers． The provincial returnees knowledge spillovers present a " non － equilibrium" pattern． Because of geographical locations and other factors in China s regions，the technology spillover effect of returnees present a decreasing trend from the eastern，central and western regions．

Changing Patterns of Chinese Population Pressure on the Ecological Environment: 1990～2010

Sun Fenghua, Sun Dongqi, Hu Yi, Li Shaopeng, Xu Jianbin

2013, 37(5): 103-113.

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This paper examines changes of population pressure on the ecological environment and its spatial variation in China． Data are collected from the statistical yearbooks of 31 provincial administrative areas in 1990，1995，2000，2005 and 2010. Using a geographic information system ( GIS) and relevant models，this paper analyzes trends in the population pressure on ecological environment and the change of the gravity center of ecological environment quality in China． Generally，population pressure on the ecological environment in China is becoming higher，population and environment has been in serious imbalance，and the ecological environment is suffering from serious pollution． While population pressure on the ecological environment is becoming lower in some areas，the ecological environment is getting worse． Areas of super high population pressure on the ecological environment include Beijing，Tianjin and Shanghai． There is a far distance between the gravity center of population pressure on the ecological environment and the gravity center of ecological environment quality，but the general trend is that they are moving from West to East China．Finally this paper discusses policy suggestions on improving ecological environment quality．

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