Abstract: Abstract: China s 2010 census reported extremely low infant mortality and under － five mortality rates． This paper examines quality of data of the infant mortality and under － five mortality rates obtained from the 2010 census by comparing between various data sources． The paper reviews international experiences in changing infant mortality and under － five mortality rates and their relations with social and economic development，demonstrating that the infant mortality and under － five mortality rates obtained from Chinas 2010 census are well beyond the general patterns obsevred in other countries． Applying Coale － Demeny model life tables and Brass logit models，this paper provides an estimate of China s 2010 infant mortality and under － five mortality rates，with the infant mortality rate being 18 － 19 per 1000 and under － five mortality rate 22 － 23 per 1000，contrasting to 3. 8 per 1000 and 6 per 1000 directly derived from the 2010 census．

Keywords: The Sixth Census, Infant Mortality Rate, Under － five Mortality Rate, Assessment

摘要： 文章根据卫生部监测点数据及世界其他国家有关数据对我国第六次人口普查公布的婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率提出质疑,认为普查数据所显示的我国婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡概率水平偏低且下降速度过快。在此基础上,文章进一步结合多国数据,分别考察经济发展水平、文化教育水平与婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率之间的关系,发现我国的状况在很大程度上不符合国际经验。为给出相对准确的婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率估计值,研究中利用寇尔德曼模型生命表及布拉斯罗吉特转换对我国实际的婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率进行了估计。研究结果显示,我国婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡概率分别在18‰~19‰和22‰~23‰的范围内。

关键词: 第六次人口普查, 婴儿死亡率, 5岁以下儿童死亡概率, 数据质量评估