Abstract: This paper examines technology spillover effect of overseas returnees according to a threshold panel model of overseas returnees． By using China＇s 1995 － 2011 provincial panel data，the paper explores empirically the relationship between the number of returnees and knowledge spillovers． The results show that returnees as new channels of international knowledge transfer have a significant effect on knowledge spillovers which can promote technological progress; once the number of returnees reached above a certain threshold value，its knowledge spillover effects get jumped and accelerated． The stronger the absorptive capacity of local human capital，the better the acception of the returnees knowledge spillovers． At the same time，the absorptive capacity of local human capital has single threshold effect to returnees knowledge spillovers． The provincial returnees knowledge spillovers present a " non － equilibrium" pattern． Because of geographical locations and other factors in China s regions，the technology spillover effect of returnees present a decreasing trend from the eastern，central and western regions．

Keywords: Returnees Reflux, Knowledge Spillovers, Technological Progress, Threshold Panel

摘要： 文章构建了海归回流量的门限面板模型,利用中国1995~2011年各省市面板数据对海归回流引致的知识溢出效应进行实证研究,并进一步考察海归回流量与吸收能力变量与海归知识溢出关系。结果表明:发现海归回流作为国际知识转移的新渠道对中国知识溢出效应有显著影响作用,能促进中国技术进步;海归回流量一旦跨越某一门槛值,海归回流的知识溢出效应呈现跃升、加速态势。地区本土人力资本吸收能力越强,其接受海归知识溢出的效果越好,同时地区本土人力资本吸收能力对海归知识溢出效应具有单一门限特征;省际海归回流的知识溢出效应呈现"非均衡性";由于地理位置等因素的差异,海归回流后产生的知识溢出效应在东部、中部、西部呈递减趋势。

关键词: 海归回流, 知识溢出, 技术进步, 门限面板