Abstract: The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanisms—demographic，sociological and economic，working towards a downward spiral in future fertility. Once TFR drops below 1. 5，it will be difficult to recover. The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has challenged the low-fertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself. So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law. As with China，the current fertility level is above 1. 5 births per woman，and China is not in the“Low-fertility trap”. Moreover most recent surveys suggest that current fertility intention in China is above 1. 8 births per woman and more than 60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy. In addition，birth postponement is still playing an import role in reducing TFR in China. Thus，with the high fertility intention，adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect，TFR in China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future.It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility.

Keywords: Low Fertility, Lowest-low Fertility, Low Fertility Trap, Fertility Policy

摘要： “低生育率陷阱”理论认为，低生育率具有人口学、社会学和经济学三个自我强化机制，生育水平一旦降到1. 5 以下将很难回升。近年来，世界范围内众多国家生育率回升的事实质疑了该理论，挑战了它本身的一些论证和证据。“低生育率陷阱”说法可能只是对短期内生育率变动现象的总结，还不能归纳为规律。中国目前的生育水平在临界值1. 5 以上，尚未陷入“低生育率陷阱”。多项调查表明中国目前的意愿生育水平在1. 8 以上，有60%以上的人在政策调整后会生育第二个孩子。同时，进度效应在降低时期总和生育率上仍起着重要作用。因此，在较高的生育意愿影响下，伴随着生育政策的调整以及未来进度效应的减弱，生育率在未来一段时期内会出现回升而不是下降。断言中国已进入“低生育率陷阱”或面临“低生育率陷阱”的严重风险还为时过早。

关键词: 低生育率, 极低生育率, 低生育率陷阱, 生育政策