Abstract: To explore the feasibility and sub-group characteristics of current family support for elderly in China，this study utilizes synthesis evaluation from perspectives of both burden of elder care and capacity of family support. We design three sets of index from economic，human-resource and potential dimensions，and an integrated summary index，to identify the most vulnerable sub-groups. Data from CLHLS are used to develop and analyze the sets of index. Results suggest that the largest gap in family capacity relative to burden of elder care exists in the oldest old，the female old，and the old living in the east or middle area. These vulnerable groups in old-age support do have much lower family capacity with higher burden of care in all the economic，human resource and potential dimensions，and their inferiority can also be traced from past life experiences，which is getting worse as they are ageing.

Keywords:

摘要： 为考察当前中国家庭养老的可行性和困难群体分布特征，文章从老年人家庭整体出发考察养老能力，从老年人的养老负担和老年家庭整体的承载力相对应的角度出发，采用综合评价的方法，在经济、人力、潜在三个方面分别设置相关指标，并汇总形成分指数和总指数，尝试通过不同群体指数或分指数得分的对比，识别出依靠家庭养老相对困难的群体。研究应用CLHLS 调查数据，使用单因素和多因素分析方法研究了养老负担和家庭承载力分布的群体特征。研究结果显示，高龄、女
性、东中部的老年人成为家庭养老能力相对于负担最为不足的群体，养老弱势群体表现出养老能力在各方面均相对不足、积贫积弱和随老化负担变重且家庭承载力弱化从而困难程度进一步加深的特点。

关键词: 家庭养老, 养老负担, 家庭承载力, 综合指数评价