Table of Content

29 January 2015, Volume 39 Issue 1

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China's New Normal in Population and Economy

Li Jianmin

2015, 39(1):  3. 

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China's population and economy have simultaneously come to a“new normal”in the 2010s，which would bring about profound and far-reaching impacts on China's development by determining the path，pattern and pace of economic development. Demographic dynamics are not only the major determinant of
consumer market，but also influence，as endogenous factors in economic growth，the demand and supply of production elements market，and finally determine the economic long-term equilibrium of demand and supply.Thus，the demographic new normal is both a major determinant and a basic condition of the economic performance under the new normal. This paper identifies the characteristics of the new normal population and analyzes the paths through which the population new normal influeces the economic new normal，and discusses the potential economic consequences of the new normal population and their policy implications.

Selectivity Bias in the Effect of Migration on Fertility

Zhou Hao

2015, 39(1):  14. 

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With the counter-factual causal inference framework，this paper employs various propensity score matching methods to explore the effect of selectivity of migration on the fertility level of floating population in China，and estimates and compares migrant and non-migrant fertility levels after controlling for the selectivity bias. Both lifetime fertility( children ever born) and period fertility( births in the year proceeding the census) are examined using data from the 2000 census. Heckman 2-stage model shows that the observed difference between migrant and non-migrant fertility is biased due to selectivity of migration. The consistent results from three types of propensity score matching methods demonstrate that migrant fertility is markedly lower than non-migrant fertility，and a larger proportion of the difference is explained by the selectivity. Anyway，the study suggests that migration does reduce fertility.

Income Gap between Urban Residents and Rural Migrants in Chinese Cities

Huang Qian, Zhou Xing

2015, 39(1):  29. 

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Drawing upon the CHNS data and using unconditional quantile regression and dynamic decomposition methodology，the paper examines the income differentials and over-time changes between urban residents and rural migrants in Chinese cities from 1989 to 2009. Results show that the income gap has considerably widened during the past twenty years. While the widening income gap in the 1990s was mostly attributable to changes in wage structures effect ( discrimination) ，the major determinant of the rising income gap after 2000 is changes in labor market segmentation. Thus，policies addressing labor market segmentation and discrimination and improving educational level of the migrant workers are of fundamental importance to reducing the income gap.

A Study on the Index of Burden of Elder Care and Capacity of Family Support

Feng Ting， Zheng Zhenzhen

2015, 39(1):  50. 

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To explore the feasibility and sub-group characteristics of current family support for elderly in China，this study utilizes synthesis evaluation from perspectives of both burden of elder care and capacity of family support. We design three sets of index from economic，human-resource and potential dimensions，and an integrated summary index，to identify the most vulnerable sub-groups. Data from CLHLS are used to develop and analyze the sets of index. Results suggest that the largest gap in family capacity relative to burden of elder care exists in the oldest old，the female old，and the old living in the east or middle area. These vulnerable groups in old-age support do have much lower family capacity with higher burden of care in all the economic，human resource and potential dimensions，and their inferiority can also be traced from past life experiences，which is getting worse as they are ageing.

“Getting Old before Getting Rich”in China: A Regional Perspective

Zhong Shuiying, Zhao Yu, Ren Jingru

2015, 39(1):  63. 

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The regional perspective of“getting old before getting rich”in China is framed by the comparison in population ageing between less developed and more developed areas. Basing on the connotation of this phenomenon，this paper constructs measurement indexes to describe the phenomenon quantitatively and analyzes the severity，trends and causes of this phenomenon in China. The results show that，while trends in population aging in different regions across China are broadly consistent with regional levels of economic development，spatial patterns of ageing have been changing. The inter-regional trend of“getting old before getting rich”has become increasingly severe. The reasons why the phenomenon becomes increasingly serious are the dramatic growth in migrant population，which is highly age selective and concentrated in the developed regions.

Measuring and Comparing Population Longevity Level across the Ｒegions of the World

Lin Bao

2015, 39(1):  74. 

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Appropriate indexes and methods is the key for measurement and comparison of population longevity level across the world. This paper summarizes indexes for measuring population longevity level from dimensions including population age structure，deaths，and life table，and discusses the methodology on how to compare regional population longevity. The proportion of people aged 100 + in the total population，the proportion of people aged 80 + in the population aged 60 + ，and the proportion of people aged 100 + in the population aged 90 + are the representative indexes in the population age structure dimension，and the proportion of deaths occurring at age 90 + among the total deaths and the mean age at death are the representative indexes in the death population dimension，while in the dimension of life table，the chosen indexes are life expectancy at birth and at age 80. Based on these indexes，the single and multi-dimensional composite indexes can be constructed to compare the longevity levels among different regions. The result shows that Japan，France and Switzerland are the leading countries in longevity.

The Effect of Population Agglomeration on Heterogeneity of Regional Labor Productivity

Chen Xinying

2015, 39(1):  85. 

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The conventional spatial homogeneity hypothesis is unable to account for the extent to which population agglomeration affects labor productivity in the context of spatial heterogeneity in China. Using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012，a heterogeneity test is performed with spatial panel regression and threshold panel regression to investigate the non-linear relationship between population agglomeration and labor productivity. Population agglomeration tends to improve labor productivity but with marked regional differences，showing an inverted U shape relationship which has triple nonlinear threshold characteristics.Differentiated Population policies need to be carried out for different cities according to their stage in the inverted U shape relationship. During the urbanization of Midwest China，education policies are especially important to address the loss of labor productivity due to the excessive agglomeration of the homogeneous lowgrade labor force.

Living Conditions of Returned Migrant Farmers Disabled by Work Injury

He Xin, Wu Lei

2015, 39(1):  96. 

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Returned migrant farmers disabled by work injury are a special vulnerable group. Employing a SAFE framework and a qualitative research approach with a face-to-face，semi-structured，in-depth interview method collecting a sample of 21 returned migrants，this paper depicts and analyzes their living conditions as well as risk factors to their survival and development. The results show that they are trapped in vulnerability because of work injury，handicap，and rural household registration identity. They are forced to return，and further encountered inadequate medical services，limited social networks and support，and helpless financial situation. They are trapped in invisible poverty and isolation due to their migrant identity and physical handicap. The social policy and service，basic，integrated and family-centered，should be developed to meet their needs and settle down the problem and case management would be the helpful policy measure.

Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis: Principles，Procedures and Applications in Demography

Hou Jiawei, Xin Ziqiang, Huang Silin, Zhang Mei, Dou Donghui

2015, 39(1):  104. 

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Cross-temporal meta-analysis is a newly developed but extensively applied method of quantitative literature review. This approach sorts a series of previous studies which are independent with each other but refer to the same issues in a chronological order，thus the hidden changing patterns of target variables could be observed. This method has now been widely used in psychology，educational research，behavioral science，medicine，economical management and many other areas. The use of cross-temporal meta-analysis in demographic research may contribute to revealing general trends of Chinese population changes by analyzing the results of previous studies on the same topics and with the same methods. In this paper we introduce the basic concept of cross-temporal meta-analysis，and illustrate the methods and procedures involved with a case of fertility research. Problems such as measurement instruments，odd values and their solutions are summarized，and practical applications of cross-temporal meta-analysis in demographic research are discussed.