Table of Content

29 March 2015, Volume 39 Issue 2

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Gender-Earning Differentials in China's Urban Labor Market

Cheng Cheng,Wang Yixuan,Bian Yanjie

2015, 39(2):  3-16. 

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Two conventional theories to explain gender-earning differentials, human capital theory and gender occupational segregation theory have both met challenges in the rising Chinese labor market. Using the JSnet 2009 data set, this study attempts to investigate the male-female earnings differential in China’s urban labor market with social capital perspective lens. Two research questions are examined. First, why does social capital affect earnings gap between genders in urban China’s labor market? Second, to what extent, after netting out the effects of all the other influential indicators, the earnings gap can be explained by different accesses to (capital deficit) and returns on social capital (return deficit) between genders. The improved Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition and quantile regression decomposition techniques are primarily used as statistical methods. It is found that after netting out the effects of other influential factors, like indicators of human capital and gender occupational segregation, social capital is the most crucial predictor of gender earnings gap in China’s urban labor market. Moreover, females’ social capital deficit and social capital return deficit simultaneously contribute to their earnings disadvantage in China’s urban labor market relative to their male counterparts.

Human Capital and Returning Decision of Migrant Workers in the Era of Emerging Urban Labor Shortage

Niu Jianlin

2015, 39(2):  17-31. 

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China has witnessed great volumes of migrant workers returning hometown in the past decade. Meanwhile, an increasing number of cities, especially the major migrant-receiving cities, started to encounter severe labor shortage. This study investigates whether the recent returning flows have selected migrants of higher human capital and thus contributed to a significant loss of human capital in those traditional hosting areas. The results suggest that migrants with higher education have been less likely to return hometown, and they remain so even today. Nevertheless, male migrants having agricultural working skills are increasingly more likely to return hometown recently. Yet, the impact of health condition on returning decision is rather complex. There have always been migrants with deteriorated health condition returning home. This study concludes that migrant workers make their decision to return or not return rationally according to their human capital and comparative advantage. To date, the returning flows of migrants have not resulted in a significant loss of human capital, albeit it might have contributed significantly to labor shortage, in many cities.

A Reassessment of China’s Recent Fertility

Chen Wei, Zhang Lingling

2015, 39(2):  32-47. 

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Using data from China’s population censuses and sampling surveys, this paper provides a reassessment of China’s fertility since 2005 under the assumption that the 2010 census has  similarly high data quality as the 1990 census. Cohort analysis suggests that population aged 0-5 in the 1990 census is underreported by 7.7%, and population aged 0-5 in the 2010 census is thus adjusted with this rate, which are further translated into annual births and fertility rate over 2005-2010. This paper also provides an estimation of fertility over 2005-2013 using the relationship between total fertility rate and crude birth rate which are based on data from censuses and sampling surveys plus the crude birth rates published by the National Bureau of Statistics. While differences exist in the results from the two type of estimation, they are largely consistent. China’s recent fertility stands at a level that is unlikely below 1.5, and most probably around 1.6. The paper concludes with a discussion of the assumption used in this research and some plausible limitations of the research.

Quantitative Analysis on the Relationship between Socioeconomic Development and Fertility

Zhou Changhong

2015, 39(2):  40-47. 

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There is a universal trend of declining fertility since 1970s in virtually all countries of the world despite their large differences in the levels of fertility. This trend is likely to continue in the future and fertility rates of the countries are predicted to convergence to replacement level by the end of this century. Cross-country data indicate that a higher level of economic and social development leads to a lower level of fertility. Given HDI representing a country’s economic and social development level, statistical estimations based on data of 109 countries with over 5 million people in 2010 demonstrate a strong reverse relationship between HDI and TFR among the countries: an increase in HDI is associated a corresponding decrease in TFR; and when HDI is greater than 0.71, TFR drops to below replacement level. This relationship can be explained by an array of interplays of economic and social factors, among which a significant linkage is with the variable of urbanization.

New Developments and Future Trends of Births in China

Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Jiaju, Li Long

2015, 39(2):  48-56. 

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China has fully implemented a two-child fertility policy for couples that either side has no siblings. Meanwhile, two noticeable changes were observed in 2014. One was a noticeable fall in the sex ratio at birth, while the other was a marked increase of the number of annual births. In this context, this paper examines China’s current fertility by analyzing the effect of the new fertility policy and estimates fertility trends in the near future. Our analyses suggest that the new fertility policy has just had the effect that was previously expected, and China’s annual births would be expected to increase to nearly 18 million in 2015. China has not yet had the fertility “crisis”. With further adjustment of fertility policy, China’s fertility level still has potential to upturn and would rise to 1.7 or over in the very near future.

Reflections on the New Two-Child Fertility Policy

Liu Shuang，Wang Ping

2015, 39(2):  57-66. 

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In conducting a more extensive and in-depth analysis of the new two-child policy, this article summarizes the results from the existing studies, and provides new interpretations and rethinking of the new family planning policy by looking at China’s fertility level with lifetime and regional perspective. Research shows that women’s lifetime fertility level is not as low as the period fertility level, and China has not fallen into the “low fertility trap”. A fundamental feature of China’s fertility pattern is the large regional differences. Adjustment of fertility policy needs an overall consideration. It is too early to suggest that the new fertility policy has had effects that are far below expectations when the policy has just been implemented for one year. The new fertility policy is transitional, and plays a role of reducing birth accumulation when moving to a universal two-child policy. Policy adjustment and change will bring about a full range of social impacts.

The Impact of Mass Media on Divorce Rate: An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

Lu Jiankun,Fan Liangcong,Luo Weidong

2015, 39(2):  67-77. 

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This paper investigates the effects of the mass media on the divorce rate in China based on contract theory. We incorporate the widely identified factors influencing the stability of marriage into a single model and specify four main mechanisms through which the mass media may take into effect; that is, through widening the difference between expected utility and real utility of marriage, through changing the allocation of leisure time of the couple and especially through reducing the input of marriage specific capital, through reducing the (expected) divorce cost, and through weakening the disciplinary function of custom and social norms. Based on the panel data in 1998-2011 from 31 provinces in the mainland of China, the econometric regressions confirm the significantly positive effect of the mass media on the divorce rate in recent China. The results are robust after controlling for factors including the migration rate and education.

Do Skip-Generation Raising and Intergenerational Transfer Lead to Early Retirement of Parents?An Empirical Analysis Using CHARLS Data

He Yuan，Wang Yipan

2015, 39(2):  78-90. 

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This paper explores how skip-generation raising and intergenerational transferring affect the individual’s retirement decision by survival analysis using CHARLS data. The major findings are as follows. Firstly, individuals postpone the timing of retirement responding to the intergenerational transfers from their children, and this influence is stronger if the agent is poorer. Secondly, individuals retire earlier when they need to take care of their grandchildren. Thirdly, comparing with time effect, economic effect is a more important factor causing people to delay their retirement age. Therefore, skip-generation raising leads to early retirement of the individuals, while they continue to work even if they can gain old-age support from children. They help their children looking after the next generation when are pretty well off. We suggest that governments increase investment on education of the pre-school children, and provide incentives to children in supporting their elderly parents, thus improving the elderly welfare and helping relieve the pressure of population ageing.

Institutionalization of Basic Services for Elderly: Theoretical Analysis and Policy Framework

Li Bing,Zhang Hangkong,Chen Yi

2015, 39(2):  91-99. 

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In meeting the ageing challenge, elderly service is becoming a major project related to people's well-being that concerns the Chinese government and the whole society. Institutionalization of basic elderly services becomes a key issue. Combing the enacted elderly service policies, this paper provides a theoretical perspective of social policy to the institutionalization basic elderly service; analyzes the ideology of elderly service policy, the selection of elderly service model, and the necessity of constructing basic elderly services based on these perspectives; and finally, presents a policy framework of institutionalization of basic elderly services.

Trends and Correlates of Religiosity among the Elderly in China

Huang Qingbo，Chen Gong

2015, 39(2):  100-112. 

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Using data from the 2000 and 2010 wave of Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban/Rural China, this paper analyzes trends and correlates of religiosity among Chinese elderly over 2000-2010 by performing period and cohort comparison and multiple logistic regression, in order to provide further evidence for aging policies in China. Results show that the proportion of elderly having religiosity declined from 15.56% in 2000 to 13.89% in 2010; and this proportion of religiosity among the elderly was decreasing in the same age group over time, and decreasing with age in the same birth cohort, which is consistent with the prediction of secularization theory. Gender, ethnicity, education, party membership/cadre status, chronic disease, self-rated filial piety, living with children, and participations in social organization have significant impact on religiosity among the Chinese elderly.