Abstract: Using data from the 2000 and 2010 wave of Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban/Rural China, this paper analyzes trends and correlates of religiosity among Chinese elderly over 2000-2010 by performing period and cohort comparison and multiple logistic regression, in order to provide further evidence for aging policies in China. Results show that the proportion of elderly having religiosity declined from 15.56% in 2000 to 13.89% in 2010; and this proportion of religiosity among the elderly was decreasing in the same age group over time, and decreasing with age in the same birth cohort, which is consistent with the prediction of secularization theory. Gender, ethnicity, education, party membership/cadre status, chronic disease, self-rated filial piety, living with children, and participations in social organization have significant impact on religiosity among the Chinese elderly.

Keywords: Elderly, Religiosity, Period/Cohort Analysis, Comparison Analysis

摘要： 利用2000年，2010年“中国城乡老年人状况调查”数据，通过时期队列比较和多元Logistic回归，分析我国近十年来老年人宗教信仰的变动趋势与影响因素，为我国老年人口的服务政策提供相关的依据。分析发现，十年间我国老年人口中信教的比例从15.56%下降到13.89%；除60~64岁年龄组外，同一年龄组的老人信教比例有所降低，同一出生队列老年人信教比例随着年龄增长而有所下降，这与世俗化理论的预测趋势一致。性别、民族、受教育水平、是否为党员/干部、慢性病、自评子女孝顺、是否与子女同住、有无社会组织参与等变量是影响老年人宗教信仰选择的主要因素。相关部门应充分地认识和把握宗教在不同时期和出生队列老年人群中的变化趋势与影响因素，以更好地制定老龄服务性政策。

关键词: 老年人, 宗教信仰选择, 时期/队列分析, 比较分析