Population Research

China's Family Planning Programme in a New Era

Wang Peian

2014, 38(6): 3-15.

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The paper reviews the background and historical process of China's basic national policy of family planning，analyses the new situation and new features of China's population and development，and summarizes the strategic tasks and safeguard mechanisms of maintaining the long-term balanced development
of China's population． China now allows couples to have a second child if either parent is an only child． The paper also introduces the significance and the progress of the policy relaxation． China's family planning over the last 40 years has helped create the external balanced development of population with economy，society，resources and environment． However，problems concerning quantity，quality，structure and distribution of population will crop up in the first half of this century． The external and internal balanced development of China's population in the second half of this century largely depends on the current and future fertility level，calling for scientific and appropriate policy making． As the objective of China's population development is turning from cubing population growth into promoting long-term balanced development of population，China's family planning programme must keep up with the new trend and adopt a new model．

China's Fertility in 2010: An Indirect Estimation Using Brass P/F Ratio Method

Chen Wei, Yang Shenghui

2014, 38(6): 16-24.

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Similar to the result of the 2000 census，China's 2010 census reported an extremely low total fertility rate ( TFR) of 1．18 births per woman． A range of diverse studies have been conducted on assessing census data quality and reestimating China's fertility，reaching substantially controversial results and highly different estimates． This paper provides an indirect estimation of China's 2010 fertility using two types of fertility data，namely，women's number of children ever born and fertility in the year preceding the census．Brass P/F ratio method is employed in this estimation．Results show that P/F ratios stand relatively constant at around 1．4 across age groups 20～24 to 35～39，suggesting that China's fertility in the past 15 years have been relatively stable，no further declines occurred． This also implies that period fertility reported from the 2010 census was underreported by 40 percent．Using the P /F of 1．4 to adjust the TFR of 1．18 leads to an estimated TFR of 1．66． The paper also discusses two possible biases when this approach is used in the Chinese context．

Spatial Disequilibrium，Population Mobility and Regional Choice of FDI

Yang Chenggang, Zeng Yongming

2014, 38(6): 25-39.

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In addressing the research question that whether population mobility influences regional choice of foreign direct investment (FDI) and its spatial difference，this paper investigates the spatial and temporal relationship between population mobility and FDI in 31 provinces of China and its evolution trajectory from 1995 to 2010． There are several research findings: First，Global Moran's I shows that FDI and population mobility have significant spatial autocorrelation and the significance increases with time． Second，the gravity centers of FDI and population mobility locate in the central area of China，i.e．，near Wuhan，Nanchang，and Hefei，which move from west to east from 1995 to 2005，while the direction reverses between 2005 to 2010．Such a trend is related to the regional development strategies． However，there are spatial variations among the gravity centers of FDI，of intra-provincial mobile population and of inter-provincial mobile population． Third，analyzing the influence of population mobility，government service and economic development on FDI shows that population mobility，especially the long-distance trans-provincial population movement significantly affects the spatial distribution and regional choice on FDI．

The Evolution of Coupling Relationship between Population Migration and Economic Growth in China

Lu Jin, Guo Zhiyi

2014, 38(6): 40-56.

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By employing the analytic hierarchy process method，this paper analyzes changing pattern of population migration and economic growth across China’s provinces，and further assesses their coordination characteristics in a coupling perspective． Results show that，at the country，region and province levels，stable coupling coordination mechanisms exist between population migration and economic growth，but the coupling levels are not high，which are decreasing from East to West． Meanwhile，there appears to be some appropriateness between migration and economic growth． However coupling levels are declining at all regions，which means that，with the advancing transformation of development pattern，economic growth will be increasingly driven by migration of high － quality human capital labour．

Further Discussion on the Standard and Definition of “Elderly”

Zhai Zhenwu， Li Long

2014, 38(6): 57-63.

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A fundamentally important issue in ageing societies is how to define“old age”and“elderly”people. Upon reviewing historical experience and clarifying practical requirements，this paper presents a theoretical framework of the definition of“elderly”and outlines its dynamic standard and scientific basis. Productive state，healthy state and disability-free state reflecting the different cognitive styles of“elderly”from the diverse dimensions of production and life should be taken into consideration when rethinking the definition system of“elderly”at distinct levels. With economic and social development，there is a need to redefine “elderly”from the different dimensions of production and life by constructing the productive state，healthy state and disability-free state life tables on the basis of the social surveys，making the age threshold of the elderly well-founded. Redefining“elderly”would contribute to repainting the blueprint of ageing research and reconstructing the patterns of ageing societies，enabling societies to deal with the ageing challenges more effectively.

The Status and Determinants of the Chinese Elderly’s Religious Belief

Du Peng, Wang Wulin

2014, 38(6): 64-75.

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Using the 2010 national survey data of Chinese Women's Social Status，this articale analyses the status and determinants of the religious belif of the eldelrly in China． Results shows that the female elderly have a higher odds on religious belief than the male elderly． Importantly，middle and old － ages are the crucial transitional periods of the elderly’s religious belief，because the elderly experience more changes on family and marital relationships and other challenges during this period． Further analysis indicates that the religious propensity of the elderly are significantly affected by gender, ethnicity，educational level and other socioeconomic factors． Policy implications are discussed focusing on improving social security and social services systems，and resonably guiding the elderly on religinous belief．

Trends of Education Inequality in China: A Cohort Perspective

Wu Xiwei

2014, 38(6): 76-91.

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Using the data from the third wave survey of the Social Status of Women in China，this study investigates the inequality of both educational outcome and educational opportunity，and how they vary with cohorts. There are two main findings. First，regardless of gender，the degree of inequality of educational
outcome increases with cohorts，but the acceleration rate tends to decrease. This trend mainly results from the increase in both of the inequality of opportunity and the weight of importance which is due to the expansion of population at risk and the raised expected gain at the junior-to-senior high school transition. Second，among all cohorts，inequality of educational outcome for men is lower than for women，because women experience higher inequality of opportunity at all transitions，but the gender gap at every transition tends to vanish with cohort. The paper concludes with discussion of the methodological and substantive significance of this research.

Health Integration and Its Determinants of the New Generation Migrant Workers

He Hong, Ren Di

2014, 38(6): 92-103.

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Utilizing the data of the 2010 survey on the health awareness of young migrant workers，this article investigates the condition of health integration and its influencing factors of the new-generation migrant workers. Results show that 21. 4% of the new-generation migrant workers rate their current health condition being better than that before migration，while 64.0% and 14.6% of the population regard their current health status being the same or worse respectively. The multi-variate analyses demonstrate that health condition tends to become better among men，among those whose sleeping time is at least 8 hours，and among those whose parents are both healthy，whereas health condition trends to become worse among the young migrant workers whose floating time is 5 years or over，and among those under greater pressure. The degree of health integration of the new-generation migrant workers is quite low，and therefore it is necessary to take actions to promote their health.

Summary of the Eighth Member Congress and 2014 Annual Meeting of China Population Association

Lu Jiehua, Miao Qiaoxia

2014, 38(6): 104-109.

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