Abstract: This study introduces a framework for estimating direct revenue provided to local coffers by so-called floating population, a synonym of migrants in the Chinese context. It proposes that the financial contribution made by floating population can be decomposed into three aspects of legally mandated payments: income tax or business tax, consumption-related tax, and obligation payment for local social security funds. Our analysis demonstrates that fiscal contribution based on floating population’s labor and consumption is not so much as their contribution caused by the loss of social security entitlements. We also find that the contribution made by floating population cannot cover the expenditure need that would arise if such population were granted an access to local public goods.

Keywords: Economic Contribution, Fiscal Revenue, Social Security Entitlements, Floating Population

摘要： 从地方政府的角度看，流动人口对当地经济的实质性贡献是配置基本公共服务、促进城镇落户改革落地的重要依据。文章从水平、构成和属性等方面分析流动人口作为社会经济个体对流入城市的经济贡献。流动人口对城市的经济贡献可分解为：其劳务收入中被扣除的税收，其消费开支中被内置的税费，其劳动关系异地转移时被截留的社会保障待遇。分析显示：从水平和构成看，流动人口的经济贡献在财富创造环节上的贡献相对较少，而在财富流通和分配环节上的贡献相对较多；流动人口对城市财政的贡献更多地建立在政府强行规定、而非市场供求关系决定的企业用工承包责任以及非自愿的个人切身权益牺牲的基础上。因此，我们认为，流动人口对城市经济的贡献模式缺乏稳健和合理的存续基因。

关键词: 经济贡献, 税收, 社会保障待遇, 流动人口