Abstract: There is a lack of official report by the Chinese government regarding the exact number of abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward．Using a modified Lee-Carter mortality prediction mod- el，this study conducts reverse prediction based on China’s official age-specific mortality data to recon- struct and calculate the single-year-age mortality rate and the normal deaths assuming that there was no great famine．Then we estimate the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward occurring between 1958 and 1961．If there had been no famine，there would have been 43. 39 to 43. 85 million normal deaths．With famine，abnormal deaths are estimated to be between 16. 24 and 23. 37 million． Our results suggest that the medium estimation of the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward stands at no more than 19. 8 million．

Keywords: The Great Leap Forward, Reverse Prediction, Lee-Carter Model, Death

摘要： 以往文献对中国1958 ～1961 年“大跃进”时期非正常死亡人口的估计缺乏深入、微观 的研究。文章基于改进的 Lee-Carter 死亡率预测模型，以官方统计的分年龄别死亡率数据为基础进行 回推，重构“大跃进”时期我国历年单岁组死亡率，并逆向预测估算在假定没有饥荒的情况下，“大跃 进”时期正常状态死亡人口数量。继而结合国内外学者对当时总死亡人口的估计，对因饥荒而导致的 “大跃进”时期的非正常死亡人口进行比较客观准确的评估性研究。结果表明，“大跃进”时期人口非 正常死亡现象主要发生在 1958 ～1961 年间，如果不发生饥荒，则 4 年正常死亡人口介于 4339 ～ 4385 万人。由于饥荒的发生，非正常死亡人口介于 1624 ～ 2337 万人。评估分析表明，“大跃进”时期非正 常死亡人口估算中值不会高于 1980 万人。

关键词: 大跃进, 逆预测, Lee-Carter 模型, 死亡人口