Abstract: Fertility intention is the preponed variable affecting the actual fertility level，providing im- portant information for predicting fertility level．A survey with a large sample size is conducted to investi- gate the fertility desires for wanting the second child of the couples under the selective and universal two-child policies in Shandong Province．The results show that the fertility desires and the ideal number of children in the two types of families are basically the same，and factors including subjective consider- ations，regional disparity，residential properties，education level，and the sex of the first child also have similar effects on the fertility desires of the two types of families．However，salient gaps exist in fertility planning，subjective considerations for not wanting to have the second child，and zodiac preference between the two types of families．Under a binary logistic regression model，sex of the first child，age， region，and subjective considerations show significant impact on fertility desires for wanting the second child in the two types of families．Furthermore，couples under the universal two-child policy primarily consider the risk of losing the only child as the intention for wanting the second one，while couples un- der the selective two-child policy care more about pension and psychological needs which are stated to be the main reasons of wanting the second child．

Keywords: A Selective Two-child Policy, A Universal Two-child Policy, Fertility Intention, Ideal Num- ber of Children

摘要： 生育意愿是影响实际生育水平的超前变量，为预测生育水平提供重要参数。通过对 山东省符合“单独二孩”政策和“全面二孩”政策家庭的大样本生育意愿调查，结果显示，两类政策家 庭的二孩生育意愿和理想子女数基本相同，且愿意生育二孩的主观因素、地区差异及户口性质、文化 程度、现有 1 孩性别等对两类家庭生育意愿的影响是类似的; 生育安排、不愿意生育的主观因素、属相 偏好等则存在显著差异。二元 Logistic 回归模型模拟结果表明: 现有 1 孩性别、年龄、地区因素、主观 因素等对两类家庭二孩生育意愿均具有显著的影响 ; “全面二孩”政策家庭更主要从一个孩子的风险 性方面考虑二孩生育，“单独二孩”政策家庭则更多从自身养老和精神需求的角度做出二孩生育选择。

关键词: &ldquo, 单独二孩&rdquo, 政策, &ldquo, 全面二孩&rdquo, 政策, 二孩生育意愿, 理想子女数