Abstract:

Based on data from the 2014 annual population change survey，this paper provides estimates of number and structure of the target couples of the selective and universal two-child policy，and conducts prediction of number of births and working age population under the two-child policy．The selective two-child policy has only limited effect on number of births，while the largest annual number of births under the universal two-child policy is roughly similar to the average annual number of births occurred in the 1980s to 1990s．Long-term decline in annual number of births is expected under the universal two-child policy．The universal two-child policy will somewhat postpone the time of China’s peak population which will be slightly larger．The universal two-child policy will have positive effect on optimizing China’s population structure and balancing its sex structure．

Keywords:  Fertility Policy, Fertility Desire, Couples One of Which Has No Sibling, Couples with Siblings, Number of Births

摘要：

文章利用2014年全国人口变动情况抽样调查数据,按层次递进的方式,分析当前我国育龄夫妇类型和生育状况,得出单独两孩政策目标人群和全面两孩政策的目标人群及年龄构成,利用分类型分年龄的生育意愿数据,分析单独两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口的影响、全面两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口以及未来我国劳动年龄人口等人口结构的影响。文章认为,单独两孩政策对出生人口的增加影响有限,全面两孩政策实施后出生人口较多的几年,大约相当于上世纪八、九十年代出生人口较少的年份,之后,预计出生人口将会逐步减少并趋于稳定;总人口峰值出现年份略有后推,峰值数量稍有增加;该政策对今后我国人口年龄结构的优化、促进出生人口性别比平衡可以起到积极作用。 

关键词: 生育政策, 生育意愿, 单独夫妇, 非独夫妇, 出生人口