Population Research

Human Capital and Migrants’Assimilation in China

Yang Juhua, Zhang Jiaojiao

2016, 40(4): 3-20.

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Migrants’assimilation has been one of the most important and longstanding sociological research topics，and human capital accumulation has been found to exert decisive effects on assimilation．This paper examines the relationship between multiple indicators of human capital and multiple indicators of assimilation among migrants in 2010．We found that generally,education，job training，occupational skill，and work experience are positively correlated with assimilation， i.e．，income，community participation，cultural assimilation，and desire of long-term residence at the place of destination． However，the relationship between human capital and assimilation is not uniform，but varies with different measures of assimilation．Education does not bear a significant linkage to cultural assimilation; also surprisingly，job training is related to income，but yields strong impact on other dimensions of assimilation．Among all indicators of human capital，work experience，gauged by work years in current position，has the most consistant association with the four aspects of assimilation．Such findings suggest that human capital affect different aspects of assimilation differently，depending on measure of assimilation and human capital perse．

The Effect of China’s Family Planning Policy on Women’s Social Status

Lu Wanjun, Zhang Binbin

2016, 40(4): 21-34.

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This paper assesses the effect of Chinese family planning policy on women’s social sta- tus using data from the 2010 Chinese General Social Survey．Employing regression models by difference-in-difference strategy，the study finds that urban women under the one-child policy have 0．71 more years of schooling than rural women，and the family planning policy also enables the intervention groups to have 1．45 more years of schooling than the control group—ethnic minorities．The family plan- ning policy has obviously promoted gender education equality．With the improvement of female education level，gender income gap began to shrink．But no significant reduction has occurred in the gender gap of return on education．Furthermore，Attitude to division of housework and to marital independence has not significantly changed．

Accumulated Couples and Extra Births under the Universal Two-Child Policy

Zhai Zhenwu,Li Long,Chen Jiaju

2016, 40(4): 35-51.

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The numbers of accumulated couples and their extra births are major concerns after im- plementing the universal two-child policy．Using data from the 2014 national population sampling sur- vey，this paper，employing a population group-component calculation and projection method，provides estimates of the size of extra births that would be influenced by the two-child policy after computing the amount of accumulated couples in 2016．The results show that the number of target population under the two-child policy would be at around 91 million in 2016 among which women at age 40 and above account for 49． 6% ．Under medium fertility scenario，the size of extra births would reach around 17 mil- lion in 2017－2021 with an annual average number of 1．6－4． 7 million．Although the number of accu- mulated couples subject to the two-child policy is large，the size of their extra births would be relatively small，implying that China would have a smooth transition to the two-child policy．

Impactof the Two-Child Policy on China’s Population

Li Guizhi,Cui Hongyan,Yan Fulin,Quan Shaowei

2016, 40(4): 52-59.

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Based on data from the 2014 annual population change survey，this paper provides estimates of number and structure of the target couples of the selective and universal two-child policy，and conducts prediction of number of births and working age population under the two-child policy．The selective two-child policy has only limited effect on number of births，while the largest annual number of births under the universal two-child policy is roughly similar to the average annual number of births occurred in the 1980s to 1990s．Long-term decline in annual number of births is expected under the universal two-child policy．The universal two-child policy will somewhat postpone the time of China’s peak population which will be slightly larger．The universal two-child policy will have positive effect on optimizing China’s population structure and balancing its sex structure．

Impact of the Two-Child Policy on Active Coping with Population Ageing

Gui Shixun

2016, 40(4): 60-65.

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Multiple-model projections of China’s population change in the 21st century suggest that the universal two-child policy implemented in 2016 macroscopically would have much larger effect on alleviating China’s old-age dependency ratio than on alleviating the old-age coefficient．Despite that the opportunity window of China’s demographic dividend would close in around 2030，the universal two-child policy could reduce China’s general age dependency ratio in the latter half of the 21st century， which helps to balance the long-term population development．On the other hand，the universal two- child policy would microscopically have great effect on enhancing family care for the elderly in China， and helps to increase the share of the ‘422’type of families，to strengthen family care when many one-child parents become the very old after 2040，and to avoid the risk of death and disability of policy- related only children．

Levels and Trends in Elderly Care Dependency Ratio in China: A Comparative Perspective

Wu Fan

2016, 40(4): 66-75.

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By constructing the index of " elderly care dependency ratio" from a macro perspective， this paper examines the relation between supply and demand of Chinese elderly care resource and its trends，and discusses the characteristics of Chinese elderly care burden based on international comparisons．While the burden of caring for elderly is still in a very mild stage，there are significant differences in the levels and patterns of elderly care dependency among China’s provinces and between urban and rural areas．Looking into the future，the burden of caring for the elderly in China will continue to in- crease，stepping into a heavy-burden stage in the 2030s and a super heavy-burden stage in the 2040s． Therefore，institutional arrangements in a long-term perspective are needed in coping with an ageing society．

Fertility Behavior and Elderly Women’s Health

Song Yueping, Song Zhengliang

2016, 40(4): 76-87.

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Based on data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey and treating fertility as a unique event in women’s life，this paper explores the impact of fertility behavior-number of children，gender structure，and fertility timing and intervals on elderly women`s health，and estimates the healthy survival time of elderly women by using the accelerated failure time model．Results show that fertility behavior significantly influences elderly women’s health．In a health perspective，more children would reduce happiness．Less number of children，appropriate age at childbearing and longer birth intervals significantly increase healthy survival time．The paper further discusses the mechanisms through which fertility behavior impact elderly women’s health，and points out that public policy should pay more attention to the potential impact of changing fertility behavior on women’s health in the context of implementing a two-child policy．

Does Public Pension Affect Intergenerational Support in Rural China?

Jiao Na

2016, 40(4): 88-102.

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New Rural China Pension System ( NRPS) and family mutual insurance are main elder- care patterns in rural China． Using data from China health and retirement longitudinal study ( CHARLS2011/2013) and employing difference-in-discontinuity method，this paper studies the effect of NRPS on Intergenerational Support in rural China．The result shows that NRPS has had crowed-out effect on family eldercare，while having had crowded-in effect on grandparents raising grandchildren．NRPS increases distance between the elders and their children although the effect is not statistical significant． With the development of public pension system in rural China，there will be huge potential for long-term care services and insurance industries．Pension can enhance independence of rural China elderly and NRPS can improve sustainability of family mutual insurance through skip-generation raising．Thus it plays a complementary role in current eldercare system．

Multiple Dimensions of Urbanization and Residential Electricity Consumption: A County-level Study in Zhejiang Province

Ren Zhengwei,Mi Hong

2016, 40(4): 103-112.

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Literature suggests that urbanization is one of the core drivers of energy consumption and carbon emissions，especially for the rapidly growth of residential electricity demand．Previous studies have only focused on the impacts of urbanization level，but ignored the multiple dimensions of urbanization and how they drive the residential electricity consumption at the local level．In this paper we decompose multiple dimensions of urbanization into level，pattern，structure and systemic position using 2000 and 2010 county-level data in Zhejiang Province，China，and test the local drivers of residential electricity consumption with fixed-effect models．Results reveal that higher per capital residential electricity usage is associated with higher urbanization level，more concentrated population distribution，higher systemic position，shrinking household size，declining labor participating rate，and higher average number of residential rooms．Policy implications are discussed．

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