Abstract:

Multiple-model projections of China’s population change in the 21st century suggest that the universal two-child policy implemented in 2016 macroscopically would have much larger effect on alleviating China’s old-age dependency ratio than on alleviating the old-age coefficient．Despite that the opportunity window of China’s demographic dividend would close in around 2030，the universal two-child policy could reduce China’s general age dependency ratio in the latter half of the 21st century， which helps to balance the long-term population development．On the other hand，the universal two- child policy would microscopically have great effect on enhancing family care for the elderly in China， and helps to increase the share of the ‘422’type of families，to strengthen family care when many one-child parents become the very old after 2040，and to avoid the risk of death and disability of policy- related only children．

Keywords:  Universal Two-Child Policy, Population Ageing, Family Care for the Elderly

摘要：

文章在多方案预测21世纪我国人口变动趋势的基础上,发现2016年起实施全面两孩政策对从宏观上减缓老年抚养比的影响要大于减缓老年人口系数的影响;而且随着时间的推移,在2100年的影响将会进一步显现。实施全面两孩政策虽然会使我国在2030左右提前关闭"人口红利"的机会视窗,但它能减缓21世纪下半叶的总抚养比,从长期看有利于人口均衡发展。实施全面两孩政策从微观上对增强我国家庭养老功能的影响更大,有利于提高"四二二"家庭结构比例,增强2040年后大批独生子女父母进入高龄时的家庭养老功能,规避与生育政策有关的独生子女不幸死亡和伤残给家庭养老带来的风险。 

关键词: 全面两孩政策, 人口老龄化, 家庭养老