Abstract: China’s universal two-child policy will definitely impact the future development of population．This paper identifies the target women of the universal two-child policy by family type，fertility history and fertility intention，according to which we calculate the number of extra births and related fertility rates and patterns．Scenarios of population forecast are developed using the model of the parity progressive population dynamics．Results show that the universal two-child policy would produce additional 21 million population during the 13th Five-Year Plan period．The population peak would be postponed to 2030 standing at 1.47 billion，slightly larger than the scenario without adjusting policies．Meanwhile，decline in population and labor force would slow down，and labor supply would increase while the pace of population ageing decrease after 2035．However，the long-term declining trend of the total population would not change．China’s population would continue to shrink at an average rate of 6.4 million per year after 2030，and will be reduced to 1.02 billion by the end of the century．

Keywords: Fertility Policy, Population Forecast, Model of Parity Progression Population Dynamics, Population Size, Age Structure

摘要： 在全面二孩生育政策实施背景下,文章运用分家庭类型的分年龄别孩次递进生育率模型测算政策目标群体并根据其再生育意愿和计划完成时间推测新增出生人口,得出生育水平、生育模式,并对未来人口发展趋势进行预测分析。结果显示:十三五期间将累计多出生近2100万人,总人口峰值将推迟到2030年的14.66亿,略大于不调整政策的情况。同时,"全面二孩"生育政策一定程度上放缓了总人口和劳动力人口的减少速度;增加了2035年之后的劳动力供给、减轻了劳动力负担和人口老化程度。但预测结果也显示总人口的减少趋势并没有改变,2030年后我国人口将以平均每年640多万的规模持续减少,到本世纪末人口减少到10.16亿。 

关键词: 生育政策, 人口预测, 年龄孩次递进生育率模型, 人口规模, 人口年龄结构