Abstract: This article analyzes the intention of urban Chinese elderly in purchasing long-term care insurance using data from the 2010 China Longitudinal Survey of the Situation of Urban and Rural Older People．Bivariate and multivariate analyses are conducted to examine the factors affecting the elderly intention of purchasing long-term care insurance．The results show that there is no strong intention of purchasing long-term care insurance for urban older people，and there is a high adverse selection．Sociodemographic，economic，alternatives，health and awareness factors significantly affect the intention of urban older people in purchasing long-term care insurance．Policy implications are discussed for strengthening long-term care insurance in China．

Keywords:  Urban Elderly, Long-term Care Insurance, Purchase Intention, Adverse Selection

摘要： 中国正处在快速老龄化阶段,随着家庭结构的小型化和空巢化,日益加剧的老龄化使老年人尤其是高龄失能、失智老人的照护问题变得非常迫切。在国外,一些发达国家通过建立长期护理保险制度,基本解决了老年人对长期护理服务的需求。文章利用《2010年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查个人问卷(城市部分)》数据,对我国城市老年人长期护理保险购买意愿进行实证分析。结果发现:目前城市老年人购买长期照护保险的意愿并不高,并且存在较高的逆向选择;人口社会因素、经济因素、替代因素、健康因素及意识因素显著影响着城市老年人购买长期护理保险的意愿。针对上述状况,文章在深入分析的基础上,对加强我国长期护理保险建设提出了具体的建议。 

关键词: 城市老人, 长期护理保险, 购买意愿, 逆向选择