Abstract:          Building up the path way linking population ageing and financial assets price and using historical data of 1990- 2015 in China，this paper applies a vector autoregression model to explore the relationship between population ageing and financial assets price． The empirical analysis results show that
population ageing has a long-term negative impact on financial assets price． From the predictive view，the pulse analysis has further confirmed that one additional positive shock added to ageing population could result in a long-term negative impact on financial assets price． This paper suggests that although population ageing would not be likely to lead to meltdown of finacial assets， the decrease of financial assets return should be vigilant seriously． The paper concludes with discussion on policy implications for population and finance management．

Keywords: Ageing , Financial Assets Price , Assets Price Meltdown , Policy Suggestion

摘要：         文章对国内外相关文献进行系统的回顾， 建立了人口老龄化对金融资产价格作用的机理和路径。利用中国 1990 ～ 2015 年历史数据建立人口老龄化和金融资产价格之间关系的向量自回归( Vector Autoregression，VAＲ) 模型，实证分析结果表明人口老龄化对金融资产价格有稳定的负向影响。从预测角度，脉冲分析结果进一步证实， 如果对人口老龄化程度添加 1 个额外的正向冲击， 将对金融资产价格产生长期的负向影响。文章认为中国人口老龄化在未来不会导致金融资产价格崩溃，但金融资产回报率的下降需要引起警惕，因为未来退休人口将更多地依赖个人储蓄及资产回报，而非传统的退休金。文章对中国未来金融资产价格的下降趋势提出预警， 提出政府应该前瞻性地从人口和金融两方面加强宏观管理，做出政策选择。

关键词: 人口老龄化 , 金融资产价格 , 资产价格崩溃 , 政策预警