Table of Content

29 September 2017, Volume 41 Issue 5

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Empty-Nest Life Expectancy of the Chinese Elderly: A Multi-State Life Table Analysis

Chen Wei Duan Yuanyuan

2017, 41(5):  3-15. 

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     The past two decades have witnessed substantial growth in the elderly population living in empty- nest families in China， with lengthening years they spent in empty- nest status．However， studies of the empty- nest life expectancy of elderly in China are rare．Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHAR LS) 2011 to 2013 and multi- state life table method， this research produces estimates of the life expectancy of older people aged over 60 and their empty- nest life expectancy， and examines the differentials according to gender， residence and educational level， both population- based and state- based． The results show that， elderly in China spend over a half of their remaining life in empty- nest status; female elderly and the elderly in rural areas have higher empty- nest life expectancy than their counterparts respectively; and the higher the level of education of the elderly， the longer their empty- nest life expectancy． Initial living arrangements of the elderly have major impact on their empty- nest life expectancy． These results apparently have important policy implications．


Re-partitioning Population Age Group and Its Implications

Luo Chun

2017, 41(5):  16-25. 

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In this paper，we argue that the current standard age partition of populations into three broad age groups is difficult to capture the social-economic meaning of contemporary populations in the context of the extension of life expectancy，the enhancement of education of children and teenagers，the crude definition of adult age，and the changing social roles for older population. In this work，we try to divide population age into five groups according to a hundred-year life expectancy，and name each group correspondingly. The new partition which divides age groups equally not only makes statistical analysis and internal comparison easier，but also exactly conveys the life characteristics and social roles for each course of life，and thus can contribute to public policy adjustment. The demographic conditions are well under way for this age partition adjustment in both more developed countries and current China.

Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Urbanization at County Level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megacity Region

Zhang Yaojun, Chai Duoduo

2017, 41(5):  26-39. 

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Based on the 2000 and 2010 census data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity regionthis paper uses the ESDA method to analyze the spatial pattern of urbanization rates as well as its changes at county level By applying Spatial Error Model and GWR method both global and local driving forces of urbanization are investigated in this region The main results are as follows The urbanization rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region at county level manifests a significant pattern of spatial aggregation which is gradually strengthened The increase of urbanization rate shows a pattern of convergence and areas where the urbanization rate is high have positive impact on the nearby areas where the urbanization rate is low For areas where the urbanization rate is increased the distribution of high value of rural contribution share is similar to that of areas which are in low urbanization rate Economic level industrial structure medical and education level and terrain condition have significant effects on the urbanization level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region Each driving force has a unique distribution of incidence pattern for different areas．

Geographical Effects and Driving Mechanism of Inter-provincialMigration in China:Are Men and Women Different?

Zeng Yongming

2017, 41(5):  40-51. 

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Using the spatial OD model，this study analyzes the migration flows among 31 provinces in China by exploring geographical effects，driving mechanism，and gender differences based on the inter-provincial migration data of the 6th Population Census． Inter-provincial migration exhibit significant spatial dependence，in which the origin and destination separate spatial autocorrelation promotes migration， whereas the origin-destination joint spatial autocorrelation hinders migration． In general， the “push”from origin is weaker than the “pull”from destination in Chinese inter-provincial migration．
There are significant gender differences in the driving mechanism． Impact of driving factors on female migration is stronger than that for male migration． Unemployment risk and employment discrimination are more evident in female migration． Males are more strongly influenced by spatial dependence than
females in the choice of migration destination， which could be explained by the gender differences of endowment and social environment．


Impact of Urban Public Resources on Migration Decision of Rural Children in China

Song Yueping,Xie Zhuoshu

2017, 41(5):  52-62. 

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       Children＇s migration is the core process of family migration which has profound influenceon migrant  family＇s development． The decision mechanism of children＇s migration differs from one family to another and highly depends on whether there is a chance of sharing urban public resources． This paper explores the impact of the urban public resources， especially education and medical resources， on the decision of rural children＇s migration． The empirical model is based on data from the dynamic monitoring survey of migrant population conducted in 2014 as well as the medical and education resources data of the same year at city level． Results show that the adequacy and accessibility of urban public resources have significant influence on rural children ＇s migration decision． For children in different age groups，migration behaviors rely on different types of public resources． Due to the restriction of hukou，the impact of urban public resources on rural children＇s migration is significantly reduced in megacities．


New Features and Influencing Mechanisms of Migrant Long-term Residence Tendency

Yang Xue,Wei Hongying

2017, 41(5):  63-73. 

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         Based on the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission on floating population in 2015， this paper applies logistic regression model to analyze migrant long-term residence tendency in cities． The results show that migrant long-term residence tendency is influenced by their demographic， human capital， and economic characteristics， through which this migrant group has demonstrated a new feature of differentiation．Improvement of education enhances individual＇s long-term residence tendency． Junior college education being the dividing point， the higher educated migrants present a stronger tendency of residence． The increase of income level has a significantly effect on the residential preference of the entire group． Income of 6000 yuan being the dividing point， the high-income group of migrants have a stronger long-term residence tendency than the low-income group． When added into the model the housing expenditure， the increased housing expenditure elevates migrant residential preference． However， it also has a negative effect on the residential preference of the high-income group．


The Impact of Retirement on Physical and Mental Health among Chinese Elderly

Liu Shenglong， Lang Xiaojuan

2017, 41(5):  74-88. 

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       Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) of 2010，2012 and 2014，this paper explores the impact of retirement on Chinese elderly＇s physical and mental health based on the mandated retirement age policy within a framework of regression discontinuity (R D)． The mechanism of the impact of retirement on health is further tested． The results show that the impact of retirement on the health of males is not significant，while retirement has a significant positive influence on females ＇ self － rated health and mental health，the mechanism of which is that retirement significantly increases female physical exercise per week． Although retirement increases male physical exercise per week in a similar manner，it also raises the probability of overweight for males，which is likely to offset the effect of exercise to a certain extent．Chinese government is considering implementing policies for gradually postponing the retirement age of employees． The results of this paper indicate that postponing retirement should not be made at the expense of elderly＇s health，and China needs to push forward the“healthy aging”strategy．


Recent Trends in Employment Structure for Migrant Workers in China

Zhu Mingbao,Yang Yunyan

2017, 41(5):  89-100. 

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     This paper examines recent trends in employment structure for migrant workers in China over 2007- 2013 using data from CHIP 2007 and CHIP 2013． While the majority of migrant workers obtain job through“strong ties” ， this percentage stood at 50． 82% in 2013， a 13． 8 percentage point decline
from that in 2007． Ｒ egarding investment and loan for self- employment， 90% invested and 30% borrowed in 2013， and private lending is the main type of loan but it has declined by 20． 53 percentage points． The percentage of self- employment approximated to 30% in 2013 with an increase of 7． 25 percentage points． Major occupations involve commercial service， self- employment and production and transportation， and the main industries are wholesale and retail， manufacturing and resident service  and repair service． The proportion of the migrant workers with an annual income over 30 thousand yuan  has increased markedly by 42． 65 percentage points．


The Effects of Population Ageing on Financial Assets Price in China

Qi Mingzhu

2017, 41(5):  101-112. 

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         Building up the path way linking population ageing and financial assets price and using historical data of 1990- 2015 in China，this paper applies a vector autoregression model to explore the relationship between population ageing and financial assets price． The empirical analysis results show that
population ageing has a long-term negative impact on financial assets price． From the predictive view，the pulse analysis has further confirmed that one additional positive shock added to ageing population could result in a long-term negative impact on financial assets price． This paper suggests that although population ageing would not be likely to lead to meltdown of finacial assets， the decrease of financial assets return should be vigilant seriously． The paper concludes with discussion on policy implications for population and finance management．