Table of Content

29 July 2017, Volume 41 Issue 4

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The Two-Child Policy and China's Long-Term Balanced Population Development

Wang Peian

2017, 41(4):  3-7. 

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As expected，the universal two-child policy has brought about a surge in births in China， which is largely consistent with previous projections．While the number of women at childbearing age decreases，there is still a significant increase in births．To ensure the implementation of the universal two-child policy，a reform on the management of family planning service has been launched and a portfolio of systematic complementary policies has been gradually announced．For the long-term balanced population development in China，five essential topics need more attention from researchers． First，we should respect the laws of population development and keep the fertility rate at an appropriate level．Second，we should better understand the relationship between population and social development and implement social policies that facilitate a family-friendly environment．Third，we should further explore the interrelationship between population and economy．Fourth，we should investigate the relation- ship between migration and urbanization process，proposing innovative plans for population distribution．Finally，we should also be updated with the new trends of world population development，under- standing China's population development from a comparative perspective．China is now at a tipping point in the history of population development．The ground-breaking policies and reforms，such as the practice of family planning and reform-and-opening，provide great opportunities for all demographers to study and enrich population development theories．

Implications of Population Aging for Labor Supply and Economic Growth in China: A CGE Analysis

Zhu Qin and Wei Taoyuan

2017, 41(4):  8-21. 

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This paper investigates the implications of population aging for labor supply and economic growth in future China. We particularly introduce an indicator of labor supply-effective labor-which takes into account the differences on labor productivity across age groups. Based on a Computable General Equilibrium ( CGE) model，we simulate four scenarios with various labor supply assumptions，and compare their effects on the change of factor labor price，economic output，and industrial structure. Our results show that total effective labor supply in China is expected to peak in 2017 and then start to decline. The falling speed would be faster and more volatile than that of total population and total labor force. In the scenario of effective labor supply，the growth rate of GDP in China in the first half of this century will decline faster and fluctuate greater than that in the other scenarios where labor supply is assumed to be affected by the development of total population or total labor force. If labor supply is assumed to be determined only by the dynamics of working-age population，the future economic growth may be underestimated. Our study suggests that the heterogeneity of labor efficiency of age groups should not be neglected when we assess labor supply，such that we can avoid misjudging future economic growth and industrial structure change.

Trends of Disability and Mortality among the Oldest-Old in China

Zeng Yi、Feng Qiushi、Therese Hesketh、Kaare Christensen and James W. Vaupel

2017, 41(4):  22-32. 

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Based on analyzing data of 19，528 oldest-old aged 80-105 from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study，we found that the age-specific mortality rates and disability in activities of daily living ( ADL) were substantially reduced among oldest-old individuals in 2008 compared with 1998，which was due to rapid socioeconomic development. However，we also observed significant increase in disabili- ties of physical performance and cognitive capacity among the oldest-old during the same period over 1998-2008. This is because remarkable advancements in medical technology and living standards enhanced longevity and“saved”quite a lot of frail elderly's lives and thus increased overall disability rates of physical and cognitive functions. We believe that the success of increasing human lifespan will come along with both benefits ( e. g. improvement in ADL) and costs ( e. g. worsened average physical and cog- nitive capacities) among the oldest-old. However，the costs may not be considered as“failure of success”，that was widely used in connection with the theory of expansion of morbidity in the literature of population aging studies，because it sounds too pessimistic and may mislead the public. We propose to use“costs of success”and“benefits of success”to summarize the co-existence of expansion of morbid- ity and compression of morbidity，as discovered in present and other studies. We believe that the society does not need to be scared about the“costs of success”，but rather try to face the challenges by sound policy actions to reduce the costs and increase the benefits of the success of longevity，and eventually a- chieve the goal of healthy aging.

The Effects of Changing Age Structure on Economic Growth

Xiao Yiping and Yang Yanlin

2017, 41(4):  33-45. 

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Using the 1987-2015 census data of China，this paper studies the effects of changes in de- mographic age structure on economic growth. We use fixed effect models for panel data to investigate the impact of size and age composition of working-age population on economic growth. The result shows that one percentage-point increase in the working-age population ratio would lead to a 1. 9% increase in GDP per capita，and one percentage-point increase in the share of the population at prime ages lead to a 1. 7% increase in GDP per capita. Estimating the contribution of changes in age structure to China's eco- nomic growth，the result suggests that during the 1987-2015 period，changes in age structure contribute to 14. 69% of China's economic growth. It is forecasted that China's demographic dividend window would be closed during the period of 2015-2020. Finally，we decompose the effect of changes in age structure on economic growth，demonstrating that age structure affects economic growth mainly through the improve- ment of the efficiency of production factors，the accumulation of human capital，and the enhancement of employment.

Determinants of Long-Term Care Services among Disabled Older Adults in China: A Quantitative Study based on Andersen's Behavioral Model

Peng Xizhe，Song Liangjun，Huang Jiankun

2017, 41(4):  46-59. 

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This paper employs the Andersen's Behavioral Model as the theoretical framework to ana- lyze the determinants of utilization of formal long-term care service ( including the home/community- based LTC and institution-based LTC) using the dataset of CLHLS 2014 in China. The logistic regressions show that the enabling and need but not the predisposing factors are significant determinants of formal LTC use in China. The Paper further argues that the long-term care service utilization in the Chinese context is subject to the social-culture environment，the importance of which is highlighted. In addition，we have modified the Andersen's Model for LTC use by adding the willingness of family caregivers as the cultural factors based on the Chinese socioeconomic situation. The paper concludes with discussions on the as- sessment of LTC，the capability development of family，and the future trends of community-based service.

Future Trends of China's Population and Aging:2015 ～2100

Zhai Zhenwu，Chen Jiaju，Li Long

2017, 41(4):  60-71. 

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 The implementation of the universal two-child policy will have a profound influence on China's future trends of population and changing path of aging. Using data from the 1% population sampling survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015，this paper conducts simulations of the size and structure of China's population over the years 2015-2100 by taking into account the potential demographic impacts of the fertility policy adjustment. The results show that China's total popula- tion will grow to the peak in around 2029 and then enter the era of negative population growth; China's population structure will be aging with shrinking working-age population size and expanding elderly population size; the speed of the decline in China's proportion of working-age population will be fast before 2050 and slow with fluctuations after 2050; China's size of elderly population will peak in around 2053 and then gradually begin declining; China will experience a rapid increase in proportion of elderly population before 2050 and the pace of population aging will slow down after 2050.

The Development of Mutual-Aid Social Aged Care in Rural China

Liu Nina

2017, 41(4):  72-81. 

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The purpose of rural mutual-aid social care is to provide mutual-aid in the daily life of eld- erly with the notion‘Helping Others Is Helping Self'. It mobilizes older people's human resource as the main service force to provide a new type of social support for the elderly. It can solve the problems of the weakened traditional family care in Chinese rural area and the increasing number of elderly left un- attended，and coordinate China's rural local situation and its modern transformation. It can be upgraded and developed during the construction process of rural area with Chinese characteristics. In recent years，many rural areas began to develop mutual-aid social care，and obtained repeatable successful experience. Chinese rural mutual-aid social care should take low-standard，wide-coverage，and sus- tainability as the goal，use“Helping Others Is Helping Self”concept as action core，and more effective- ly utilize the human resources of rural elderly. In the context of the wide differences lying between devel- oped and underdeveloped rural areas，this may be the best way to resolve the conflict of the rapid growth of elderly population and the limitation of elderly service.

Hukou Relocation and Registered Population Urbanization

Hou Yajie

2017, 41(4):  82-96. 

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 In the Chinese context，migration is defined to be move with hukou relocation，which is closely associated with urbanization. Over the past two years，the central government has attached great importance to the urbanization progress of the registered residents. A new round of household registration system reform was launched in 2014. Based on the data of hukou registration transition in 2013，this study examines patterns and determinants of household migration and urbanization of regis- tered population. Results indicate that the difference of hukou status between rural and urban areas was the fundamental cause in holding back household migration. Moreover，migration to big cities is pre- ferred by elites，while the medium-sized cities and small towns are lack of attraction for these people.

The Urban and Rural Household Structure of Married People over Their Life Course: Based on the Census Data since 1982

Wang Yuesheng

2017, 41(4):  97-112. 

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 Data from the four censuses since 1982 show that there are both similarities and differ- ences in the household structure between urban and rural married people at different stages of their life course. In urban areas，the majority of newly married people had established independent living u- nits. After giving birth to the first child，women mainly lived in nuclear households. When children grew up and became married，the proportion of the " empty nest" household among the elderly couples in- creased considerably. A gradually growing trend was observed in the widowed elderly living alone. However，widowed elderly living with their married children still accounted for a larger propor- tion. Before 2000，the household structure of rural married people was similar to that of their urban counterparts over their life course. In 2010，the proportion of newly married people living alone was low- er than that in 2000. The proportion of nuclear households declined for those married people who just had the first child，while the proportion of young married people living with parents or parents in law in the lineal household increased.