Abstract: Based on the 2000 and 2010 census data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity regionthis paper uses the ESDA method to analyze the spatial pattern of urbanization rates as well as its changes at county level By applying Spatial Error Model and GWR method both global and local driving forces of urbanization are investigated in this region The main results are as follows The urbanization rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region at county level manifests a significant pattern of spatial aggregation which is gradually strengthened The increase of urbanization rate shows a pattern of convergence and areas where the urbanization rate is high have positive impact on the nearby areas where the urbanization rate is low For areas where the urbanization rate is increased the distribution of high value of rural contribution share is similar to that of areas which are in low urbanization rate Economic level industrial structure medical and education level and terrain condition have significant effects on the urbanization level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region Each driving force has a unique distribution of incidence pattern for different areas．

Keywords: Population Urbanization , Spatial-Temporal Pattern , Driving Forces , Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Mega-city, County Level

摘要： 文章基于 2000 年和2010年中国人口普查的分县数据采用方法分析京津冀地区县域城镇化率的空间格局分布及变动情况提出城镇化率变动分城乡贡献度指标并就京津冀地区进行研究采取空间误差模型与的方法分别考察该地区城镇化全局和局部的驱动力状况结果表明京津冀地区的县域城镇化率表现出显著的空间集聚并且有逐渐加强的趋势城镇化率提高过程呈现收敛模式高城镇化率地区对于周边城镇化率过低的地区具有带动作用对于城镇化率提高的地区其增量中乡村贡献度的高值分布与城镇化程度低的一些地区重合经济水平产业结构医教水平和地形因素对京津冀地区城镇化影响显著。

关键词: 人口城镇化 , 时空格局, 驱动力京津冀, 县域