Abstract: Based on the urban-rural data by age and sex released by the United Nations in 2014, It is found that the phenomenon of urban-rural inversion of population ageing is universal. There are clear developmental stages for the differences between urban and rural population ageing with two turning points when the proportion of population aged 60+ reaches 3% ~ 4% and 10% . In the first stage ( the proportion of population aged 60+ is less than 3. 5% ),the urban-rural difference increases by 0. 172 percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population. In the second stage ( the proportion of population aged 60+ is between 3. 5% and 10% ), the urban-rural difference is reduced by 0. 243 percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population. In the third stage,the urban-rural difference increases by 0. 211 percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population. Combined with theoretical analyses,this paper proposes a revised “urban-rural differences transition model” explaining the inversion pattern of urban-rural ageing in most of the world??s countries and regions.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Urban-Rural Differences, Urban-Rural Inversion

摘要： 文章利用联合国 2014 年发布的城乡分年龄性别数据,分析发现人口老龄化城乡倒置现象具有普遍性。 同时,人口老龄化城乡差异存在明显阶段性,在 60 岁及以上人口比例达到 3% ~ 4%及 10%时存在两个转折。 分段回归结果显示,在第一个阶段(60+人口比例<3. 5%),60 岁及以上人口比例每提高 1 个百分点,城乡差异将扩大 0. 172 个百分点;在第二个阶段(3. 5% ≤60+ 人口比例 <10%),60 岁及以上人口比例每提高一个百分点,城乡差异将缩小 0. 243 个百分点;在第三个阶段(60+人口比例≥10%),60 岁及以上人口比例每提高 1 个百分点,城乡差异将扩大 0. 211 个百分点。 结合理论分析,文章提出了修正的“城乡差异转变模型”,认为大部分国家和地区人口老龄化城乡差异将经历“扩大—缩小—再扩大—再缩小”4 个阶段。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 城乡差异, 城乡倒置