Abstract: Based on the data of the first-generation only-child family survey in urban areas in 5 provinces,this paper examines the intention and its determinants of old-age support in family and in nursing home for the aging only-child parents.The results show that their family support level is low,and most parents are selfsupported,while there seem to be no serious risk in emotional and daily care support among the first-generation only-child parents.About 40% of the onlychild parents have willingness to stay in a nursing home in the future.The higher the education level and income of the only-child,the more economic supports are provided to parents.Parents living with the only-child are provided with more household support and have lower willingness to live in nursing home.Family support,rather than community-based services,has substitution effect on institutional support for the aging parents.

Keywords: Only-child in Urban Areas ,  , Family Support for the Elderly ,  , Willingness to Stay in a Nursing Home ,  , Community Care Service

摘要： 文章利用2015年五省市城市第一代独生子女家庭状况专项调查数据，分析了城市第一代老年独生子女父母的家庭养老和入住养老院养老意愿的现状及其影响因素。研究发现，目前城市第一代独生子女父母的家庭养老支持水平较低，多数老年独生子女父母处于“自立”养老状态，尚未面临严重的精神生活与日常照料风险；受教育水平越高、收入越多的独生子女给予父母的经济支持越多；约40%的独生子女父母未来有入住养老院的打算，亲子同住在提高老年父母家务支持的同时，也降低了有入住养老院意愿的风险；家庭养老支持对入住机构养老具有一定的替代性，但社区养老服务对机构养老的替代性尚不明显。

关键词: 城市第一代独生子女 , 家庭养老 , 入住养老院意愿 , 社区养老服务