Abstract: Based on four provinces data, including Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, from 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper evaluates the fertility level of southwest China before and after policy adjustment in terms of period and cohort fertility level, and examines the provincial differences. The results show that: First, TFR has been increasing substantially since 2016, which is caused almost completely by the rise of TFR for second birth. Second, average age at first marriage and age at first birth have been delayed, leading to lower level of TFR for first birth and decreased average number of children even born for younger women. Third, the increase of average number of children even born and ratio of parity progression for second birth for women aged 35 to 39, especially for those with nonagricultural Hukou, reflect the policy adjustment effects. Finally, there are marked regional and group differences in fertility level in Southwest China. Fertility is higher in Guizhou and Yunnan, compared to Chongqing and Sichuan; and is higher in women with agricultural Hukou than those with nonagricultural Hukou. Policy adjustment effects are more significant in women with nonagricultural Hukou.

Keywords: Four Provinces in Southwest China, Period Fertility Level, Cohort Fertility Level, Adjustment of Fertility Policy, Effect Evaluation

摘要： 文章运用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中重庆、四川、贵州和云南四省市的数据，从时期生育水平和队列生育水平两个角度对生育政策调整前后西南地区妇女生育变动及其省际差异进行了分析。研究发现：第一，2016年以后，妇女总和生育率有较大幅度的升高，且这种升高几乎完全由二孩总和生育率升高所贡献；第二，妇女初婚和初育推迟导致一孩总和生育率偏低，低年龄妇女平均活产子女数减少；第三，35~39岁妇女平均活产子女数和二孩递进比提高，反映了生育政策调整的作用；第四，妇女生育水平存在地区差异和群体差异，贵州和云南妇女生育率高于重庆和四川，农业户口妇女生育率高于非农户口妇女，但生育政策调整对非农户口妇女生育的影响更为明显。

关键词: 西南四省, 时期生育水平, 队列生育水平, 生育政策调整, 效果评估