Table of Content

29 March 2019, Volume 43 Issue 2

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Migration Trends and Migration Studies in China’s New Era

Wang Peian

2019, 43(2):  3-5. 

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The Future of China’s Floating Population

Zhai Zhenwu,Wang Yu,Shi Qi

2019, 43(2):  6-11. 

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Migration Transition in China

Duan Chengrong, Xie Donghong,Lv Lidan

2019, 43(2):  12-20. 

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Studies on Rural Leftbehind Population: General Position, Some Misunderstandings and New #br# Theoretical Perspectives

Ye Jingzhong

2019, 43(2):  21-31. 

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Rethinking China’s Actual and Desired Fertility: Now and Future

Wang Jinying,Ma Zhiyue,Li Jiarui

2019, 43(2):  32-44. 

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This paper uses the data of the seven northern provinces and cities in the 2017 China Fertility Survey, to assess the fertility status and actual fertility level in China, particularly in the northern provinces, with total fertility rate, parity progressive total fertility rate, lifetime fertility rate, and fertility patterns (age patterns of marriage and childbearing). The results suggest that the fertility level in China is indeed at a moderately low fertility level between 1.5 and 1.9, but not at a very low level. The twochild policy has a significant effect on the fertility of the second child. Parity Progressive desired fertility tends to more truly represent the actual desired fertility. According to the parity progressive desired fertility at ages 20~29 and 30~39, there is a possibility of increase in future fertility in China.


Fertility Trends in Four Provinces in Southwest China Before and After the TwoChild Policy Adjustment

Shi Renbing,Hu Bo and Ning Wenyuan

2019, 43(2):  45-60. 

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Based on four provinces data, including Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, from 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper evaluates the fertility level of southwest China before and after policy adjustment in terms of period and cohort fertility level, and examines the provincial differences. The results show that: First, TFR has been increasing substantially since 2016, which is caused almost completely by the rise of TFR for second birth. Second, average age at first marriage and age at first birth have been delayed, leading to lower level of TFR for first birth and decreased average number of children even born for younger women. Third, the increase of average number of children even born and ratio of parity progression for second birth for women aged 35 to 39, especially for those with nonagricultural Hukou, reflect the policy adjustment effects. Finally, there are marked regional and group differences in fertility level in Southwest China. Fertility is higher in Guizhou and Yunnan, compared to Chongqing and Sichuan; and is higher in women with agricultural Hukou than those with nonagricultural Hukou. Policy adjustment effects are more significant in women with nonagricultural Hukou.

Fertility Levels and Trends in Chinas Ethnic Minority Provinces, 2006-2016: Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey

Yuan Xin,Liu Huiru,Liu Xuyang,Liu Zhixiao

2019, 43(2):  61-69. 

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Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper analyzes fertility levels and trends over 2006-2016 in the ethnic minority provinces in China, using period and cohort measures of fertility incorporating quantity, structure and timing dimensions. The results show that the total fertility rate of ethnic minority provinces has increased to the replacement level in the past ten years, which is higher than the national average. The fertility rate of ethnic minority population is higher than that of the Han nationality, and this is the case at all parities. The secondchild fertility of Han has increased tremendously, highlighting the marked effects of the twochild policy. By ethnic group, the Uygur and Miao have strong fertility behaviors, meanwhile the Yi tends to have two children, while the Tibetans are reluctant to have more children. The fertility peak of ethnic minorities and Han women of childbearing age has been postponed from 20-24 years to 25-29 years, and the fertility level at the older age group of Han nationality has increased, pushing up the mean age at childbearing with that being higher of Han nationality than that of ethnic minorities. Overall, the ethnic minority provinces are at a moderately high fertility level.

On Misunderstandings of the Relationship between Population and Economy under the New Development Pattern in China

Zhong Shuiying，Wu Shanshan

2019, 43(2):  70-75. 

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China's economic miracle can be attributed to the effective leverage of its demographic advantage. However, demography is just one of the many factors of economic growth. While China's demographic transition poses a great challenge to its economy, this is a common feature in all demographic economic processes, and cannot be simply blamed on China's population control policies. While quantity used to be the major population and economic problem facing China, at present and in the future the problem is characterized by a more complex nature involving population size, structure and quality impacting on economic development. A large population size does not equal a country success, and has become increasingly decoupled from hard or soft power in the postagricultural era. Considering population growth as a necessary condition for economic growth may blur the focus of population economic relations in the new development stage. Instead of using economic growth as a goal for designing population policies, policymakers should make their only priorities the improvement of the people's social wellbeing and the realization of their potential.


Intergenerational Inheritance of OutWorking Experience and Employment Status of the NewGeneration Migrants

Liang Hong

2019, 43(2):  76-86. 

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Based on data of new generation derived from the dynamic monitoring survey of migrants in 2011 in China and the theoretical perspectives of intergenerational accumulation and inheritance of family resources, this article investigates the influence of parental outworking experience on the employment status of the newgeneration migrants. Results show that the intergenerational inheritance of the parental outworking experience has an important direct or indirect impact on the employment status of the newgeneration migrants. Specifically, in the employment competition of the labor market, as ascriptive factors, the intergenerational inheritance of the parental outworking experience can indirectly change the employment opportunities of the newgeneration migrants by their personal migration experience, such as improving their employment disadvantage due to insufficient accumulation of their stay or experience. The intergenerational inheritance of the outworking experience of both parents can directly and effectively promote their nonemployed employment status. With the same personal, family, migration characteristics and the same work and security conditions, the intergenerational inheritance of the outworking experience of both parents directly improves the possibility of their dissatisfaction with the present work.


Intergenerational Support for the Younger Ageing Parents in Only Child Families in Urban China: A Comparison with Multiple Children Families

Ding Zhihong,Xia Yonghe,Zhang Li

2019, 43(2):  87-99. 

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At present, the intergenerational support of the younger ageing parents in the onlychild families in urban China has the following Characteristics: On the intergenerational economic support, the proportion and quantity of money children giving to their parents exceeds what the elderly parents giving to them. The intergenerational economic support in the only child families is more balanced than in the multiple children families. On the intergenerational support in housework, there is more support in the only child families than in the multiple children families, but again the former is more balanced. In terms of spiritual support, the proportion of the ageing parents of only children feeling closer is higher than that in multiple children families. Between the only sons and the only daughters, there is no significant difference between the economic support and the spiritual support, but the support in housework is significantly different. The intergenerational support of the younger ageing parents in the only child families is mainly influenced by the status of their only child and the intergenerational relationship.


MutualAid Social Care System for Older People in Rural China

Liu Nina

2019, 43(2):  100-112. 

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Rural mutualaid social care system for the elderly develops from the traditional informal mutualaid network, complementing homebased care for the older people. The key point is to provide mutualaid services at a low cost by attracting social investment and human resources. Also, the sustainability of mutualaid social care system relies on investment, organized operation, services and regular evaluation. Based on the sources of investment, the mutualaid communitybased care can be divided into two types: a pure public welfare type and a welfare plus public welfare type. The mutualaid centralized care involves three types: a pure public welfare type, a pure welfare type and a market + type. Currently a prominent problem of the rural mutualaid care is the ignorance of service cultivation and mutual financial assistance. For the mutualaid communitybased care, the services should transit from providing entertainment to providing care. The mutualaid centralized care needs to attract more investment and reduce the cost. Some special forms of mutu