Table of Content

29 May 2019, Volume 43 Issue 3

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Decline and Cohort Differences in Activities of Daily Living of the Chinese Oldest-old

Zhang Wenjuan， Marcus W. Feldman， Du Peng

2019, 43(3):  3-16. 

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Using the data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), this study examines the decline process of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) among the Chinese oldest-old born in 1899-1908, 1909-1918 and 1919-1928 by hierarchical linear model (HLM) with mixed effects. This study aims to analyze the age effect, cohort effect, and internal heterogeneity in the process. Results show that there are both age effects and cohort effects in the process of ADL decline among the oldestold. Similar patterns of ADL decline have been found among the oldestold died at different ages. Compared to the chronological age, the remaining survival time before death has stronger predictive power on ADL changes. There are significant cohort differences in ADL changes among the oldest-old. Different socioeconomic statuses, health behaviors, childhood experiences and living environments affect ADL change trajectories among the oldestold, and also contribute to cohort differences.

Social Participation Profile of the Chinese Elderly in the Context of Active Ageing: Patterns and Determinants

Xie Lili,Wang Bin

2019, 43(3):  17-30. 

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Based on older adults involvement in economic, social, political, and family activities, we use data from CLASS (2014) to examine their patterns of social participation by latent class analysis. We identify three active profiles-High Active, Low Active, and Family Care-which are consistent with the characteristics of family culture in China. Multinomial logistic regression analysis is further adopted to investigate the association between their participation patterns and individual, social, economic, and environmental factors. Results suggest that the influential framework can explain the differences in types of participation patterns. In order to improve the internal and external abilities of the older adults in social participation, we should develop lifelong education, strengthen the capacity of social organizations, improve the old-age service system, and establish an agefriendly environment. Particularly, we should pay attention to the needs of socially vulnerable elderly groups to build a society for all ages and promote healthy ageing and active ageing.

Impact of Couple's Sex Preference on Family's Second-child Intentions

Song Jian，Jin Yongai，Wu Linfeng

2019, 43(3):  31-44. 

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Using 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces in mainland China，this study empirically investigates how sex preferences impact couple's intentions for a second child. Specifically, we discuss how the agreement on sex preferences between the husband and wife is related to their intentions for a second child and desire for the sex of second birth. The results suggest that about 59% of the couples have same sex preference, in which the preference for having both a son and a daughter (“Er Nv Shuang Quan”) is the dominant type and no preference is the secondary, while the proportion of only son or daughter preference is low. Couples who have the same sex preference are more likely to reach an agreement about having a second child or not, and they also show the same desire for the sex of second child. Husbands and wives with different sex preferences do not show lower second-child intentions. This is because the sex preference of either husband or wife will lead to higher intentions for a second child. Additionally, for couples who have intentions for a second child, the sex preference of husband rather than wife is more likely to be the same with the desire for the sex of second child.


Fertility Rate, Fertility Intentions and Childbearing Costs in Chongqing

Li ZiTan JiangrongHuang Kuangshi

2019, 43(3):  45-56. 

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Using data from the Chongqing subsample of 2017 China National Fertility Survey, this paper examines fertility trends in Chongqing from 2006 to 2016. There are considerable fluctuations in total fertility rate (TFR) in Chongqing, with an average of 1.61. In 2007, 2012 and 2016, the TFRs exceed 1.8, reaching 1.896, 1.853 and 1.891 respectively. On average, the TFR based on parity progression ratio during the past 11 years is 1.83 and the second child TFR based on parity progression ratio stands around 0.76. Under the universal twochild policy, about 38.1% of women, driven by many factors, still want to have fewer than two children. There is a gap between the ideal number of children and the children born by women in Chongqing. Attentions need to be paid to the endogenous low fertility patterns. Childbearing and childrearing costs are one of the major factors affecting womens fertility. A more fertilityfriendly society and better fertility environment will help raise fertility rate.

Reflecting on Birth Statistics Construction in China Based on the Birth Medical Certificates

Zhao Li，Fan Yanjun，Wang Yuanyuan，Zhang Yanan

2019, 43(3):  57-64. 

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Newborns are the key of maternal and child health care, national health management, and population statistics. It is of great significance for national population management and comprehensive social governance to promote the construction of basic information database of newborns. It has also been listed as one of the key contents of the National Population Development Plan (2016-2030).With the gradual improvement of management and informatization of birth medical certificates in China, the birth medical certificate system has become an increasingly important source for timely and accurate access to the basic information of newborns. Through comparing the differences of birth population statistics and methods from various departments and reviewing the history and policies of birth registration and birth medical certificates management, this paper analyzes the current situations of birth population statistics and existing problems during the informatization process. We then put forward some suggestions to improve the quality of birth population statistics in China based on the birth medical certificate information system.

The Return Decision Making of the Second Generation Migrants

Li Qiao，Liang Zai

2019, 43(3):  65-77. 

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The second generation migrants in China are expanding as a result of the development of family migration. Using data from the 2016 China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey for the second generation, we analyze factors that influence the decision making of the second generation return migrants. A principal innovation of this essay is that a new method to use the national survey data to measure the return migration among second generation migrants has been developed. Results show that (1)13-15 yearold second generation migrants are more likely to return than other age groups; (2) The more frequently their parents stay, the more likely the second generation migrants will return; the longer duration their parents migrate, the less likely the second generation migrants will return; the more leftbehind siblings there are in the household, the more likely the second generation migrants will return; (3) Compared with short distance migrants, interprovincial migrats of the second generation are more likely to return;(4) Compared with those in the Middle and the West region, the second generation born in the East are more likely to return. We argue that challenges facing the development of Chinese urbanization will be formidable.

Household Internalization and Inter-generational Allocation of Care Responsibility: Co-residence with Parents and Labor Participation of Married Women in Urban China

Song Yueping

2019, 43(3):  78-89. 

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This article studies the impact of co-residence with parents on the labor participation of urban married women in China and the different mechanisms of the impact during their whole life course. The empirical models are based on the combination of neoclassical theory of labor division within family and the theory of life course, focusing on the contradictions between womens household caring and labor participation. We find that co-residence with parents may yield different effects on women in different life course stages: positive effects on younger women by reducing their responsibility of child care and negative ones on older women by increasing their burden of elderly care. The results pass the robust test and instrumental variables are introduced in models to solve the endogeneity issue.


Interaction among Population Agglomeration, Economic Agglomeration, and Environmental Pollution：An PECM Model Analysis

Liu Yongwang，Ma Xiaoyu，Yang Ruirui

2019, 43(3):  90-101. 

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In order to coordinate development of population, economy, and environment, it is necessary to clarify the causal relationships among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration and environmental pollution. Based on the provincial data from 2007 to 2016, this paper uses the panel data unit root test, the panel cointegration test, and the panel error correction model (PECM) to generate the dynamic generalized least square (DGLS) estimation in order to explore the long-term and short-term causality among the three variables. The results show that for the short-term relationship, there is a one-way circular causal relationship among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration, and environmental pollution, while for the longterm relationship, these three variables demonstrate a double-circular causality. Based on the difference between the long-term and short-term causality, China should pay more attention to the development of regional economy, population urbanization, and environmental protection in order to realize the coordinated development of these three elements.

Marxist Theory of Balanced Population and Its Chinization

Li Long，Chen Jiaju

2019, 43(3):  102-112. 

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The population theory of Marxism classic writers, represented by the principle of “Two Ways of Production”, scientifically interprets the universal development law of human society and fully embodies the fundamental concept of “Balance”. Accompanied by the hard explorations of China, the world's most populous country, Marxist view of balanced population has constantly realized innovation and development, and theories of balanced population with Chinese characteristics have been created to adapt Marxism to China's conditions. Especially in the New Era, it has been more profoundly expounded and more systematically explained, mainly reflected in Xi Jinping's population thoughts on promoting the long-term balanced population development to boost the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Under the guidance of Marxist view of balanced population and its Chinization, China has creatively built a population system with Chinese characteristics and found a road of population development with Chinese characteristics.