Table of Content

29 July 2019, Volume 43 Issue 4

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Urban and Rural Differences in Marriage Squeeze of Chinese Men

Yu Xiao, Zhu Yingrun and Kan Xinglong

2019, 43(4):  3-16. 

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Using data from 2010 census, this paper constructs a discrete development model and predicts the age and gender structure of never married population from 2010 to 2060 separately for China's urban and rural areas. Spousal sex ratio index of marriage is used to measure the marriage squeeze of never-married men, and this study also decomposes the impacts of age structure, gender structure and spouse age differences on marriage squeeze by urban and rural areas. The results show that, from 2010 to 2060, the urban-rural difference in marriage squeeze of never-married men shows a fluctuating trend. The urban-rural gap will drop gradually till 2025, then rise steadily to 2050 and start to drop again. The urban-rural difference in gender structure contributes largely to the urban-rural disparity in marriage squeeze of never-married men. The implementation of the universal two-child policy might alleviate the marriage squeeze, while ruralurban migration exacerbates the rural-urban disparities in marriage squeeze. The government should take necessary measures as soon as possible to improve the effect of the universal two-child policy and pay attention to the influence of rural-urban migration on the marriage squeeze of rural men.


The Influencing Mechanisms of Population Age Structure and Housing Price on Household Consumption in Urban China

Huang Yanfen, Zhang Chao and Tian Shengdan

2019, 43(4):  17-35. 

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:A question of considerable interest and importance is whether China's population age structure changes caused by population aging and the universal twochild policy can improve household consumption in the new era. This paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of demographic age structure, housing price and household consumption, and conducts empirical research by using SYS-GMM model. The results reveal that both the child and elderly dependency ratios have direct positive effect on the improvement of urban households' consumption level and consumption structure, while the variable of housing price plays a significant negative moderating role on this positive effect. Therefore, this study proposes that the increase of dependency ratio brought by the universal two-child policy and population aging trend has great potential for consumption, and the dependency burden could be transformed into the demographic structure dividend. Furthermore, real estate regulation policies should be continued so as to avoid the excessively rapid rise of housing prices and unleash demographic structure dividend to help improve urban household consumption level and optimize urban household consumption structure.

The Transition of Fertility Intention Propensity of Chinese Web-Users: The Application of Public—— Opinion Big Data Analysis

Li Ting,Yuan Jie,Xia Lu,Xiong Yinghong and Zhang Luyin

2019, 43(4):  36-49. 

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This study explores how to use the online public opinion big data to infer the transition of fertility intention propensity of Chinese web-users. By comparing the results from the simple sentiment analysis, the LDA un-supervised classification, and the fasttext supervised classification, it is found that the supervised classification based on the theory of planned behavior yields more accurate and meaningful results. A change from the positive to negative dominant mood of fertility intention has occurred since 2012, during which there is a shift of topics. The comments regarding perceived controls have replaced those related to behavioral beliefs as the most popular ones for fertility. Housing price, children's education, and work are the most mentioned key words in the category of perceived controls. The strong correlation between fertility intention propensity and fertility level among Chinese provinces validates our fertility intention analyses. We also discuss the prospect of applying public opinion big data in demographic research.

Whether the Low-fertility Trap Exists?Observations on the Long-term Changes in Fertility in Post-transitional Countries

Wu Fan

2019, 43(4):  50-60. 

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Using total fertility rate (TFR) of below 1.5 for over 20 years as the criterion for judging the low-fertility trap, this research examines the trend of fertility change in 66 countries and regions that entered the post-transitional stage before 1997. Three main findings are as follows: First, the low-fertility trap is not accidental; the risk of low-fertility trap has spread from 22 countries and regions to other parts of the world. Second, the low-fertility trap is not inevitable. There are 21 countries and regions where TFR has never fallen below 1.5, and most of them have remained above 1.7 or 1.8 in most years. Third, the low-fertility trap is not unescapable, but only a small number of countries and regions have succeeded. China has long stood and fluctuated at the critical level of the low-fertility trap, the average fertility intension level is significantly lower than the replacement level, and other demographic factors that have a negative impact on fertility have strengthened, there is a high risk of falling into the low-fertility trap.

Population Monitoring Surveys in Developing Countries and Implications for China: The Case of DHS Surveys

Yang Wenzhuang，Han Runlin

2019, 43(4):  61-69. 

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Population monitoring is the fundamental work for carrying out population strategy research and solving population problems. Establishing and Improving the population monitoring system is not only the responsibility of the government, but also has theoretical and methodological significance in the field of demographic statistics. Globally, all countries in the world attach importance to population monitoring, and basically follow the model of “administrative records + monitoring and investigation”. Countries with complete vital registration system also conduct demographic surveys to make up for the deficiency of administrative records, while countries with imperfect administrative records rely on demographic surveys to carry out population monitoring. This paper examines the detailed practices of the largest demographic and health survey in the world, mainly in developing countries, in perspective of organization and implementation, survey content, questionnaire design, sample size, sampling methods, and data development and application. Based on the current situation of Chinas demographic surveys, this paper describes China's population monitoring system, clarifies the features of Chinas population monitoring system, and also puts forward the key work of the current population monitoring system construction in China.

Frailty Trajectory and Its Differentials among Older Adults in China: An Investigation Based on Frailty Index

Wu Xiwei，Liu Hui

2019, 43(4):  70-84. 

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Frailty index has been widely used to study the speed of change in frailty among older adults, and to depict the dynamic process of frailty caused by aging in recent years. Taking life course perspective as theoretical background, this study emphasizes the implications of observing and understanding the frailty trajectory within cohort, and also assumes that a framework for understanding the intra-cohort pattern of frailty should have three essential properties: random variability, trajectory heterogeneity, and cumulative disadvantage. Furthermore, relating these three properties to the specific parameters for growth curve models, datasets from China Longevity and Heath Longitudinal Survey is applied to test them. The primary results indicate that frailty trajectory follows a Ushaped curve, but there is significant betweenperson variation, and withingroup rather than between-group cumulative disadvantage mainly explains how the frailty trajectory differentiates.

The Effect of Caring for Grandchildren on the Health of Middle and Old-Aged People

Han Baoqing，Wang Shengjin

2019, 43(4):  85-96. 

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This paper analyzes the positive and negative impact of grandchildren caring time on older people's health. The literature suggests that with the increase of grandchildren caring time, the accelerated increase rate of the positive impact on the middle and old-aged people gradually decreases, while the accelerated increase rate of the negative impact gradually rises. Therefore, the total effect demonstrates a trend of first rising and then declining. This paper empirically tests this hypothesis using the cross-section data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2015. The regression results based on both the overall sample and the sub-sample show that with the caring time increasing, the probability of self-reporting health deterioration of the middle and old-aged people declines first and then rises. This paper, comparing the actual grandchildren caring time, the optimal caring time, and the time that the influence of caring for grandchildren equaling to no caring for grandchildren, finds that the Chinese middle and oldaged people spend too much time caring for their grandchildren.

Effects of Informal Employment on Occupational Mobility Intentions of Migrant Workers

Yang Fan，Pan Yue

2019, 43(4):  97-112. 

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Using job search theory and through bivariate logistic regression model, propensity score weighting analysis and structural equation modeling, this paper analyzes the differences of occupational mobility intentions among migrant workers in formal and informal employment, and the impacts of informal employment on their occupational mobility intentions. The results show that the two groups of migrant workers differ significantly in the personal characteristics, human capital and social capital. After controlling the selection bias, the informal employment migrant population has stronger occupational mobility intentions than the regular employment migrant population. However, the impact of informal employment on the occupational mobility intentions of migrant workers is different between different groups. Informal employment not only directly increases the occupational mobility intentions of migrants, but also indirectly increases their intentions of occupational mobility by affecting the working characteristics of migrants.