Abstract: Using job search theory and through bivariate logistic regression model, propensity score weighting analysis and structural equation modeling, this paper analyzes the differences of occupational mobility intentions among migrant workers in formal and informal employment, and the impacts of informal employment on their occupational mobility intentions. The results show that the two groups of migrant workers differ significantly in the personal characteristics, human capital and social capital. After controlling the selection bias, the informal employment migrant population has stronger occupational mobility intentions than the regular employment migrant population. However, the impact of informal employment on the occupational mobility intentions of migrant workers is different between different groups. Informal employment not only directly increases the occupational mobility intentions of migrants, but also indirectly increases their intentions of occupational mobility by affecting the working characteristics of migrants.

Keywords: Floating Population, Informal Employment, Occupational Mobility Intention, Propensity Score Weighting Analysis, Structural Equation Modeling

摘要： 随着经济的深度调整和产业结构的变动，流动人口的职业流动变得日趋频繁。文章以职业搜寻理论为框架，采用二分类Logistic回归模型、倾向值加权分析和结构方程模型的方法，分析了非正规就业对流动人口职业流动意愿的影响，以及这种影响的异质性和作用机制。结果表明，正规就业的流动人口和非正规就业的流动人口在个人特征、人力资本和社会资本等方面存在着显著的差别。在控制了选择性偏差以后，非正规就业流动人口的职业流动意愿仍高于正规就业流动人口。但是，非正规就业对流动人口职业流动意愿的影响存在着内部异质性。非正规就业不仅直接增加了流动人口的职业流动意愿，而且会通过影响流动人口的工作特征而间接增加他们的职业流动意愿。

关键词: 流动人口, 非正规就业, 职业流动意愿, 倾向值加权分析, 结构方程模型